000 AXNT20 KNHC 182204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from near Sarasota, Florida through the central Gulf to Tampico, Mexico. Gale force winds have developed west of the front south of 24N. Seas are peaking near 10 ft over the area of gale force winds. As the front pushes southward, the gale force winds will spread southward, reaching the waters off Veracruz, Mexico tonight. Seas are expected to peak above 15 ft with the gale force winds. Winds and seas will start to decrease Wednesday, with winds diminishing below gale force Wednesday night. Improved conditions are anticipated for the west-central Gulf by Thu morning, and Bay of Campeche by Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 15N southward, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 21W and 30W. The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W/40W from 20N southward and moving west around 15 kt. Low pressure has developed along the tropical wave near 17N39.5W. Scattered moderate convection is found east of the wave axis from 10N to 22N between 30W and 40W. The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 17N southward, and moving west around 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from 16N southward across central Panama into the Pacific, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the Caribbean waters within 60 nm of the wave axis south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough moves off the coast of Africa near 15N17W and extends to near 06N30W. Associated convection is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the west-central and southwestern Gulf. A strong fall cold front extends west-southwestward from near Sarasota, Florida through the central Gulf to Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 120 nm south of the front. The northern part of an eastern Pacific tropical wave is over the western Bay of Campeche. These features are triggering scattered moderate and isolated strong convection across the southwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail behind the front, reaching gale force south of 24N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range behind the front and west of 90W, reaching 10 ft over the region of gale force winds. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere north of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail ahead of the front. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Florida Keys to the central Bay of Campeche tonight, and from 25N80W across the Straits of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale force winds of 30 to 40 kt and seas peaking to at 17 or 18 ft are expected in the wake of the front over the SW Gulf. The gale force winds near the Tampico area will continue to spread southward into the Veracruz region tonight through Wed evening. Winds will diminish below gale force by Wed night. High pressure will settle over the area in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms precede the front, forecast to move SE of the area by Wed afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters. This weak gradient is supporting gentle to moderate winds south of 13N and east of 77W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range, reaching near 4 ft over the SW Gulf where there has been a long enough fetch for slightly higher seas. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean by Wed afternoon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Thu, then stall on Fri as low pressure develops along the frontal boundary NE of the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas will follow the front. The front is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Caribbean waters during the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N76W across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft are found within 180 nm east of the front and north of 28N. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N55W to 26N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm east of the trough. Farther east, 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 31N35W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. North of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are found between this area of high pressure and an area of low pressure along a tropical wave near 17N39.5W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of 20N. Northerly swell is producing seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 28N between 22W and 35W. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, a tight gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and low pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, north of the low to 20N. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are elsewhere south of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by Wed morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds will precede the front north and northeast of the Bahamas through tonight. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will follow the front. Seas will build to 8 ft in the wake of the front. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, ahead of the front. By Fri, a low is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary NE of the NW Bahamas. The low will likely move N of the area Sat and Sat night. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the SE CONUS will support moderate to fresh NE winds over the northwest part of the area through Sun night. $$ AL