000 AXNT20 KNHC 181752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front across the central Gulf will continue to surge southeastward reaching the Yucatan Channel and Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front are expected to increase and reach near-gale to gale force in the far west-central Gulf by early this afternoon. These winds will continue to surge southward following the front into the western Bay of Campeche by later tonight. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft will build to between 10 and 14 ft this evening, and then further to 13 and 17 ft by Wed morning. Starting late Wed afternoon, both winds and seas should gradually decrease from the west-central Gulf southward through early Thu morning. Improved conditions are anticipated for the west-central Gulf by Thu morning, and Bay of Campeche by Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from the southern Cabo Verde Island southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Abundant moisture is fueling scattered moderate convection from 04N to 11N between 21W and 31W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from a 1012 mb low at 16N southward and moving west around 15 kt. Abundant moisture with divergent winds aloft are triggering scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 09N to 20N between 31W and 38W. Latest satellite altimetry and model output indicate fresh to locally strong easterly winds with 7 to 9 ft seas from 10N to 18N between 34W and 38W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 17N southward, and moving slowly west around 5 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 16N southward across central Panama into the Pacific, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over Panama and northwest Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just south of Dakar across 10N22W to 05N30W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up south of the trough near the African coast from Gambia southward to the Ivory Coast. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning for the west-central and southwestern Gulf. A strong fall cold front extends west-southwestward from near Tampa, Florida through the central Gulf to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 130 nm south of the front, including the southwest coast of Florida and Florida Keys. The northern part of an eastern Pacific tropical wave is over the western Bay of Campeche near Vera Cruz, Mexico. Together with a surface trough at the eastern Bay of Campeche, they are triggering numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms across the southwestern Gulf. Behind the cold front, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present at the northwestern Gulf; while mostly fresh northerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are found across the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Near the front at the far west-central Gulf, strong to locally near-gale northerly winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the strong cold front will reach from the Florida Keys to the central Bay of Campeche tonight, and from 25N80W across the Straits of Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale force winds and seas peaking near 17 ft are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf. These gale force winds will surge southward offshore the Tampico area this afternoon, spreading into the Veracruz region tonight through Wed evening. Winds will diminish below gale force by Wed night. High pressure will settle over the area in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate easterly trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen at the south-central basin offshore from near the Colombia- Venezuela border. A neutral zone between the cold front at the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic ridge near the Bahamas is supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas for the northwestern basin. Gentle NE to E trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba across the Yucatan Channel to the northern Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas. The front will then extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu afternoon, then stall while gradually weakening Fri through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front curves southwestward from off the Carolina coast across 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up near and up to 160 nm southeast of the front. Convergent southerly winds farther southeast are causing similar conditions over the northwest Bahamas and well northeast of the southeast Bahamas. A surface trough extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N54W to 26N61W. Isolated thunderstorms are found near and east of this feature north of 25N between 49W and 61W. A broad upper-level low near 22N46W is producing scattered moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 34W and 46W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A modest 1021 mb Azores High is supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in northerly swell north of 25N between the northwest African coast and 45W. Farther west, gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present north of 20N between 45W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the south, Gentle easterly trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen from 10N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. For the eastern tropical Atlantic outside the influence of the tropical wave near 38W, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are exist from 10N to 25N between the central African coast and 40W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned strong cold front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by Wed morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will precede the front north and northeast of the Bahamas today. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow the front. Seas will build to 8 ft in the wake of the front. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, ahead of the front. A coastal trough is expected to develop east of northern and central Florida starting on Fri. Low pressure may develop from the trough late Fri and lift northwest of the area Sat and Sat night. As a result of this feature, northerly winds are expected to increase across the Atlantic waters off the Georgia and Florida coast Sat and Sat night. $$ Chan