000 AXNT20 KNHC 181038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong fall cold front extends from northeast Florida southwestward to 28N88W to 25N93W and to inland northeast Mexico near 25N98W. This front will continue to surge southeastward reaching the Yucatan Channel by Wed afternoon. Strong northerly winds behind the front are expected to increase to gale force in the far western Gulf by early this afternoon. The gale force winds will continue to surge southward as the front progresses, reaching the western Bay of Campeche by late tonight and continuing there through late Wed night. Very rough seas peaking to around at 17 ft are expected near the strongest winds. Winds will decrease and seas abate through the day Thu, with favorable marine boating conditions returning throughout the basin by Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W from 03N to 16N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is surrounded by a very moist and unstable environment. Clusters of increasing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection are seen within 180 nm west of the wave from 03N to 11N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave from 04N to 12N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W from 03N to 19N moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the wave axis near 15N36W. This wave is also surrounded by a very moist and unstable environment. Increasing moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 07N to 19N between 30W-37W. An overnight ASCAT data pass highlighted fresh to strong east to southeast winds within about 180 nm east of this wave from 13N to 19N. An overnight altimeter data pass indicated seas of 8-9 ft in the vicinity the wave. A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W from 03N to 18N. It is slowly moving westward. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W from 05N to 17N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the wave near 11N77W. This is where the eastern Pacific monsoon trough intersects the wave. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 09N to 12N between 74W-79W. The northern part of an eastern Pacific tropical wave protrudes into the western Bay of Campeche along 96W and north to 21N. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing over southeastern Mexico and the southern section of the Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 13N17W to 05N27W, and continues northwest from there to 08N37W and southwest to 06N42W, where over latest ASCAT data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N45W and to 04N50W. Aside from convection related to tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is well south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 08N between 10W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 04N between 28W-34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning for some sections of the western Gulf. A strong fall cold front extends from northeast Florida southwestward to 28N88W to 25N93W and to inland northeast Mexico near 25N98W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are observed along and south of the front in the western Gulf. Behind the front, buoys are reporting a fresh to strong north to northeast winds and 5-8 ft seas. An overnight ASCAT pass revealed similar winds. Conditions are more favorable ahead of the front with light to gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to northeast Mexico near 25N98W this morning, and from the Florida Keys to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale force winds and seas peaking to around or at 17 ft are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf. The gale force winds will surge southward offshore the Tampico area late this morning into the afternoon hours, spreading into the Veracruz region tonight through late Wed night. Winds will diminish below gale force by Wed night. High pressure will settle over the area in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is supporting favorable conditions across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas are found over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle trade winds seas of 1-3 ft continue elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel and to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas. The front will extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu afternoon, then stall while gradually weakening Fri through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front is just offshore the U.S. southeast coast. Increasing numerous moderate convection moving eastward is present from 25N to 31N between 72W-79W. To the east, a surface trough extends from near 31N56W to 28n59W and to 24N63W, supporting another area of scattered moderate convection from 23N to 31N, between 52W and 61W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and 3-5 ft seas are observed north of 27N and west of 70W. In the central Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the south and east in direction along with 4-6 ft seas. Strong winds and a small area of seas to 8 ft are noted in the vicinity of the tropical wave along 35W. In the eastern Atlantic, a high pressure ridge extends along 27N, with the associated gradient allowing for light to gentle trade winds there. North of the ridge, westerly winds gradually increase with latitude, becoming a fresh breeze by 31N, and gale force farther north. Seas are approaching 8 ft from this system along 31N, and will continue to propagate southward. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the northeast to east in direction along with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned strong cold front just offshore the Georgia coast will reach from near 31N77W to Vero Beach, Florida this morning, then from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys by Wed morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds will precede the front north and northeast of the Bahamas today. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will follow the front. Seas will build to 8 ft in the wake of the front. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, ahead of the front. A coastal trough is expected to develop east of northern and central Florida starting on Fri. Low pressure may develop from the trough late Fri and lift northwest of the area Sat and Sat night. As a result of this feature, northerly winds are expected to increase over the northwest part of the area Sat and Sat night. $$ Aguirre