000 AXNT20 KNHC 171807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An early season strong cold front currently over the northwestern Gulf will sink southeastward through Wed afternoon, and exit the southeastern Gulf on Wed night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected to develop across the northwestern Gulf off the Texas coast tonight. These winds will increase to between strong and gale force, and spread southward into the west-central Gulf by Tue afternoon, then into the western Bay of Campeche on Wed. Seas will build and reach 11 to 15 ft on Tue and 13 to 17 ft on Wed. The strongest winds and highest seas are anticipated near the Mexican coast of Veracruz. Both winds and seas should gradually subside starting Thu. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from just west of Dakar, Senegal at 15N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 11N between the Guinea-Bissau/Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 22W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 16N southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Fresh southerly winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are present just east of the wave from 10N to 15N between 31W and 34W. Enhanced by divergent winds aloft, widespread scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 29W and 41W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 17N southward, and moving west at 5 kt. No significant convection is present based on the latest analysis. Based on the latest sounding data from Curacao, Neverthlands Antilles and model output, a tropical wave in the Caribbean Seas has been relocated to near 74W from just south of Haiti southward into northern and central Colombia. It is moving west around 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the Colombia-Venezuela border. Another tropical wave is near 92W from the eastern Bay of Campeche southward across southeastern Mexico into the East Pacific, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present at the central Bay of Campeche and Mexican States of Veracruz and Oxaca. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the Senegal-Gambia border across 07N25W to 09N42W. Other than the convection related to the tropical waves, no significant convection is found near the trough. An ITCZ continues northwestward from 09N42W to 13N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 160 nm north of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over Panama, northwestern Colombia and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for a Gale Warning in the west-central Gulf. An early season cold front extends southwestward from near New Orleans to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the front across the northwestern Gulf. Two surface troughs, one farther south and another one farther southeast are producing similar conditions at the central Gulf and southeastern Gulf near the Florida Keys and Straits. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found at the northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to northeast Mexico near 24N98W tonight, and from near Ft. Myers Florida to near Tampico, Mexico by Tue morning, and from south Florida to near Veracruz by Tue night. It is expected to exit the Gulf on Wed. Strong winds are expected across most of the western Gulf behind the front, with gale force winds developing offshore of Tampico, Mexico, Tue and spreading to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night through Wed night. Winds may briefly gust to gale force over the NW Gulf late tonight into Tue. Winds will gradually diminish beginning on Thu as high pressure becomes centered over the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Island heating with light trades are allowing isolated thunderstorms to form near the southern coast of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the basin. Moderate easterly trades and seas of 3 to 4 ft exist at the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Light to gentle trades with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the Caribbean will diminish to mainly light to gentle wind speeds through Tue. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast for the eastern and central Caribbean Tue night into Thu night as two tropical waves move across the region. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel and to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula Wed night, followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas. The front will then weaken as it slowly reaches from central Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula Thu and from east-central Cuba to Belize Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves across the basin. A surface trough curves southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N60W to northeast of the southeast Bahamas at 24N71W. Scattered moderate convection is present near and up to 380 nm east and south of this feature. Divergent winds associated with an upper- level low at 20N50W is triggering scattered moderate convection from 16N to 25N between 42W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for more convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present near the surface trough north of 24N between 57W and 62W. Otherwise, a modest Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 22N between the northwest African coast and Georgia-Florida coast. To the south outside the influence of the eastern Atlantic tropical wave, gentle to moderate NE to E trades with 3 to 6 ft are present north of 11N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore the southeastern U.S. this evening, reach from near 31N76W to Fort Pierce, Florida Tue afternoon and from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas Wed. This front will become stationary from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas, then weaken through Fri. Fresh S winds are forecast ahead of the front and north and northeast of the Bahamas Mon night through Wed, with fresh to strong N winds expected Wed through Thu. A trough is expected to form offshore from northern Florida Fri and Fri night. Low pressure may form from the trough afterward. $$ Chan