987 AXNT20 KNHC 162253 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 13N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 14N and between 25W and 41W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52W, south of 17N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level low to the west, resulting in scattered showers from 11N to 24N and between 42W and 52W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 62W, south of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. A tropical wave has its axis along 89W and south of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and west of the wave axis affecting the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 12N17W to 09N19W to 12N31W to 05N43W. The convection present in the vicinity of the trough is described in the Tropical Waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge over the eastern United States extends weakly into the Gulf of Mexico, supporting light to moderate easterly winds and seas of 1-3 ft. A weak surface trough is analyzed across the NE Gulf along 88W and N of 27N with no significant convection at this time. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the basin as it reaches from Cape San Blas to Deep South Texas Mon night and from S of Fort Myers, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico, Tue night. The cold front will exit the basin Wed. Strong winds are expected across much of the western Gulf behind the front, with gales developing offshore Tampico, Mexico, Tue and spreading to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night. Winds will gradually diminish starting Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves across the basin. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is affecting the waters of the SW Caribbean, within 120 nm of the coast of Panama, associated with low-level convergence in the area. The rest of the Caribbean is under a dry airmass, suppressing the development of any significant convection. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are noted in the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades and seas of 1-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through tonight, then diminish to mainly light to gentle wind speeds Mon into Tue. Locally fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras will continue into tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast for the eastern and central Caribbean Tue night into Thu night as two tropical waves move across the region. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Wed night along with moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves across the basin. A cold front extends from 31N65W to 23N79W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 31N61W to 21N74W. The trough combined with divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 23N between 58W-73W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring behind the cold front. In the rest of the western Atlantic W of 55W, the weather conditions are fairly tranquil, while light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate to fresh easterly trades are noted in the central Atlantic from 06N to 20N and between 29W and 50W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Recent altimeter satellite data depicts seas up to 8 ft near 11N35W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue moving E tonight, then stall from near 31N60W to 23N70W Mon, and dissipate by Tue. Another cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Mon night, then reach 31N70W to the NW Bahamas Wed. This front will stall Thu from Bermuda to the central Bahamas, then weaken into Fri. Fresh S winds are forecast ahead of the front N and NE of the Bahamas Mon night through Wed, with fresh to strong N winds expected Wed through Thu. $$ ERA