000 AXNT20 KNHC 160937 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 33W, from 02N to 13N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 12N, between 27W and 40W. A tropical wave extends along 49W, from 04N to 18N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 23N, between 40W and 50W. A tropical wave extends along 59W, from 05N to 18N, moving west at 10 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. A tropical wave extends along 86W/87W, south of 20N. Scattered showers are in the Gulf of Honduras offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 13N17W SW to 09N28W to 07N40W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 12N, between 09W and 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure anchored off the Carolinas extends a ridge SW across the northern Gulf waters and provides gentle to moderate E to SE winds and a gentle breeze basin-wide. Middle to upper level dry air subsidence support fair weather conditions across most of the basin, except for scattered showers in the Bay of Campeche being supported by shallow moisture. For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Mon supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the basin as it reaches from Cape San Blas, Florida to Corpus Christi, Texas Mon night, from Fort Myers, Florida SW to Veracruz, Mexico offshore waters Tue night and then exit the basin on Thu. Fresh to near gale force winds following the front will increase to gale force winds along the E Mexico offshore waters Tue afternoon through Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Bay of Campeche are forecast to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the tropical waves section for information about the tropical wave in the W Caribbean. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through tonight and diminish to mainly light to gentle wind speeds Mon into Tue. Locally fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras will continue through tonight. Moderate winds are forecast for the eastern and central Caribbean Tue night into Thu night as two tropical waves move across the region. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu afternoon along with moderate to fresh northerly winds and a fresh breeze with moderate waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from around 31N67W to Nassau in the Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will slide east through today, and move E of the area Mon night before dissipating. Another cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Tue morning, reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Wed evening and then stall Thu before weakening further Thu night. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front to the N and NE of the Bahamas Mon night through Wed night while fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast behind the front Wed through Thu. $$ Ramos