000 AXNT20 KNHC 152256 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of 13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N and between 28W and 33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W, south of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A second central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level low to the north, enhancing scattered showers within 150 nm on both sides of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are present near the wave axis mainly S of 18N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues west-southwestward to 08N41W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers over the central Bay of Campeche is associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Karl. Mariners in the area can expect moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft. Farther north and east, a weak stationary front extends from 28N83W to 26N92W. Scattered showers are noted south of the frontal boundary affecting the SE Gulf waters including the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions thanks to a dry continental airmass. Light to locally moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted in the area. For the forecast, the remnants of Karl will dissipate over the Bay of Campeche tonight. The stationary front will dissipate this evening. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon, preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will bring strong winds to much of the western Gulf Tue into Wed night. Northerly gales are possible Wed offshore Veracruz, Mexico. The cold front will move SE of the basin Wed night into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the tropical waves section for information about the tropical wave in the Caribbean. A line of showers and a thunderstorm or two are found stretching from NW Colombia to 14N82W. Farther north, a few showers are found in the lee of central and eastern Cuba, likely associated with a surface trough north of the island and divergence aloft. The rest of the Caribbean is dominated by a weak high pressure regime and favorable marine conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are present in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night into Thu. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu along with moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a low pressure south of New England to 31N72W to the Treasure Coast of Florida near 27N80W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 31N69W to 23N78W. Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 24N and between 64W and 72W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring W of the surface trough. The rest of the western Atlantic, W of 55W, enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions, light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends along 31N between 48W-56W. Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 27N between 47W-53W. To the east, another surface trough is analyzed from 28N37W to 24N34W with no significant convection at this time. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a strong high pressure positioned near Newfoundland. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted from 10N to 23N and between 27W to 47W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will slide east through the weekend, then stall Mon from Bermuda to the Bahamas, before dissipating early next week. Another cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Tue, then reach from Bermuda to the Bahamas Wed. $$ ERA