000 AXNT20 KNHC 151028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl is centered near 18.6N 93.0W at 15/0900 UTC or 70 nm W of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving SW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N to 21N between 92W and 93.5W. A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is expected today, and the center of the low should move along the coast of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today. Additional weakening is forecast, and the low is expected to dissipate tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 29W, from 02N to 13N, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 02N to 13N, between 24W and 34W. This tropical wave has a low probability of tropical cyclone formation through both 48 hours and 5 days. A tropical wave extends along 44W from 03N to 17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 20N, between 39W and 44W. A tropical wave extends along 52W, from 02N to 18N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 22N, between 49W and 55W. A tropical wave extends along 78W, from 06N to 20N, moving west at 5 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N37W. All significant convection along this boundary is associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave described above. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl, which is in the Bay of Campeche. Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl near 18.6N 93.0W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving SW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Outside of the Bay of Campeche, a stationary front extending from the Tampa Bay area to the nort-central basin near 27N90W is supporting scattered showers in the SE gulf. Otherwise, winds are gentle to moderate N of 22N from the east E of 90W and east- southeast W of 90W. Seas are 3-4 ft N of 22N. For the forecast, Karl will become a remnant low and move to 18.3N 93.9W this afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. Elsewhere, the stationary front will dissipate Sun. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. This next front is likely to reach the far southeastern Gulf late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the tropical waves section for information about the tropical wave in the Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient continue to support gentle to moderate trades and 3-4 ft seas across most of the basin, except in the south-central Caribbean where winds are locally fresh and seas are 5-6 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night into Wed night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Wed night along with fresh to locally strong northerly winds and moderate seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A middle to upper level trough supports a cold front from 31N73W SW to Freeport northern offshore waters where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Moderate N to NE winds follow this front. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 31N67W SW to the central Bahamas, which is generating scattered moderate convection N of 20N between 62W and 76W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of surface ridging, which is providing for mainly moderate NE to E winds and seas to 6 ft E of 50W. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front across the offshore waters N of Freeport Island in the Bahamas will transition back to a cold front this morning, reach from Bermuda to Andros Island in the evening and then stall from SE of Bermuda to NE of the Turks and Caicos Sun night, before gradually dissipating early next week. Another cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Mon night, then reach from 31N73W to the Florida Straits Tue night. $$ Ramos