000 AXNT20 KNHC 132313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 20.9N 93.5W at 13/2100 UTC or 170 nm NNE of Coatzacoalcos Mexico moving SSE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 18N-23N between 89W-96W. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the southern Gulf waters from 23N-26N between 80W-89W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are expected within 30 nm in the N semicircle, 60 nm SE quadrant and 45 nm SW quadrant, with maximum seas of 16 ft. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late Friday night or early Saturday. Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis from 17N22W to 1010 mb low near 08N22W to 03N22W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-08N between 19W-24W. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Environmental conditions appear to be marginally favorable for some slow development of this system, as it moves westward to west- northwestward, 5 to 10 kt in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, through early next week. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 39W, from 16N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the northern portion of the wave mainly N of 13N. Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 73W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern portion of the wave, which currently extends across NE Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-12N between 23W-31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information about Tropical Storm Karl, which is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of T.S. Karl and associated convection, a surface ridge continues to stretch westward from central Florida to southern Texas. The ridge promotes gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft across the northern, southeastern and south- central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail at the remainder of the southern Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl will move to near 20.1N 93.2W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 93.1W Fri, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.2N 93.5W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Karl is forecast to become post-tropical as it moves inland near 17.2N 94.4W Sat afternoon and dissipate Sun morning. Elsewhere, a stationary front over eastern Texas extends to the western part of Louisiana, where it becomes a cold front east-northeast from there to across Georgia. The cold front will drop southward over the far northern Gulf by late tonight, then move across the central Gulf Fri and Fri night and stall from the Straits of Florida to vicinity Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night before dissipating by late Mon. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon night preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. This next front may reach the far southeastern Gulf late on Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Moderate to fresh trade winds are pulsing off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure pattern is resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. No significant convection is noted across the basin at this time. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean into early next week. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon. Another front may approach the southeastern Gulf late Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A low pressure system centered north of the area is supporting a trough that extends from 31N78W to 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the W Atlantic mainly W of 68W. To the east, another trough extends from 31N54W to 20N57W with scattered showers. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the surface trough eastward. Fresh E winds may be near the northern approaches of the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in the remainder of the areas that are from 60W westward. Moderate winds and seas are elsewhere from 35W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds, and rough seas are off the northwest coast of Africa north of 15N, from 35W eastward. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida tonight. The front will continue southeastward and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Sat night, then become mostly stationary along 24N Sun before dissipating through late Mon. Another cold front will move over the waters east of northern Florida Mon and Mon night, reach from near 31N76W to Vero Beach, Florida Tue morning and from near 31N73W to South Florida late Tue. $$ ERA