000 AXNT20 KNHC 130959 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karl is stationary over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 22.4N 94.4W at 13/0900 UTC, or 220 nm NNE of Veracruz Mexico. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The low level center of Karl is almost entirely exposed due to strong westerly shear. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed well east of the center, from 20N to 23N between 91W and 93W. Seas are peaking at 16 ft near and northeast of the center. Karl is expected to move slowly southeastward and southward into the Bay of Campeche during the next couple of days, with the center reaching the Mexican coast in Tabasco or Veracruz states by Saturday morning. Karl should maintain its current intensity through tonight, before a gradual weakening trend on Fri. Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco and Chiapas states in Mexico. Large swell produced by Karl will create dangerous rip currents and surf conditions along the Mexico coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 13N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 15N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N to 15N between 31W and 35W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 16N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave at the latest analysis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from the Dominican Republic southward into northwestern Venezuela, and moving west at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave at the latest analysis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends southwestward from near the Mauritania- Senegal border to a 1010 mb low near 08N23W, then turns northwestward to 12N33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 28W. An ITCZ reaches westward from 08N37W to east of the French Guiana-Brazil border at 06N50W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of Panama from 10N to 13N between 73w and 80W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Karl in the southwestern Gulf. A few showers and thunderstorms are lingering from the previous evening across the Straits of Florida. However, outside of the convection northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula associated with T.S. Karl, most of the earlier showers and thunderstorms that were flaring over the central and eastern Caribbean have diminished across the basin. A mid/upper level disturbance moving across the lower Mississippi Valley is supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms inland near the Gulf coast from eastern Texas to southern Alabama. A surface ridge continues to stretch westward from central Florida to southern Texas. It is promoting gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft across the northern, southeastern and south- central Gulf. Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Karl, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail at the southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, Karl will move to 21.7N 93.9W this afternoon, 20.7N 93.6W Fri morning, 19.7N 93.5W Fri afternoon, and 18.7N 93.9W Sat morning. Karl will move inland over southern Mexico and weaken to a tropical depression near 17.4N 94.6W Sat afternoon, become a remnant low near 16.4N 95.4W Sun morning, then dissipate by early Mon. Elsewhere, a weak cold front will enter the northwest Gulf Thu, move across the central Gulf Fri and Fri night, then stall from the Straits of Florida to vicinity Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night before dissipating by late Mon. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may enter the northwest Gulf Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trade winds are pulsing off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure pattern is resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. Outside of the convection already described north of Panama, there is no significant convection across the basin. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas through early next week. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid/upper level disturbance is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms off northeast Florida, north of 27N and east of 70W. Fresh E winds may be near the northern approaches of the Windward Passage, but gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted west of 60W. A negatively tilted upper trough along 60N north of 30N is supporting showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm east of a weak stationary front reaching from 31N52W to 25N60W. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. East of 35W, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are noted off the northwest coast of Africa north of 15N. For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area is shifting eastward ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast of northeast Florida tonight. The front will continue southeastward and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Sat night, then become mostly stationary along 24N Sun before dissipating through late Mon. $$ Christensen