000 AXNT20 KNHC 130601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Oct 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 22.4N 94.3W at 13/0300 UTC or 220 nm NNE of Veracruz, Mexico and quasi stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are peaking at 16 to 19 ft near and northeast of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted near the center and within 120 nm in the SE quadrant. Karl is forecast to move little overnight but a slow motion toward the southeast is expected to begin Thu morning, then follow by a southward turn on Fri. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico near Tabasco and Veracruz states Fri night or early Sat. Karl should maintain its current intensity through Thu night, before a gradual weakening trend on Fri. Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco and Chiapas states in Mexico. Large swell produced by Karl will create dangerous rip currents and surf conditions along the Mexico coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from 13N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 14W and 20W. A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 15N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 15N between 29W and 34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 16N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave at the latest analysis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from the Dominican Republic southward into northwestern Venezuela, and moving west at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave at the latest analysis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends southwestward from near the Mauritania- Senegal border to a 1009 mb low near 08N23W, then turns northwestward to 11N33W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near the low from 04N to 10N between 20W and 26W. An ITCZ reaches westward from 08N35W to east of the French Guiana-Brazil border at 05N48W. Scattered showers are present near and up to 90 nm north of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Panama and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Karl in the southwestern Gulf. Convergent southerly winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida west coast. A surface ridge stretches westward from central Florida to southern Texas. It is promoting gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft across the northern, southeastern and south- central Gulf. Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Karl, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail at the southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl will move to 22.0N 94.0W Thu morning, 21.1N 93.7W Thu evening, 20.1N 93.5W Fri morning, and 19.1N 93.6W Fri evening. Karl will move inland over southern Mexico to 18.1N 94.2W Sat morning, weaken to a remnant low near 16.9N 94.7W Sat evening, and dissipate by late Sun. Elsewhere, a weak cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Thu, move across the central Gulf Fri and Fri night, then stall from the Straits of Florida to near the Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night before dissipating by late Mon. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may enter the northwest Gulf Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trades are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near western and central Cuba, and Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh trades are in the central Caribbean and offshore central Honduras. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen over the eastern, central and southwestern basin. Light to gentle E to ESE trades with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will pulse near the coast over the south-central basin through early Thu. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough off the Georgia-Florida coast is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N, between 73W and the Georgia- Florida coast. The southwestern end of a stationary front and its related surface trough are causing scattered moderate convection well southeast of Bermuda north of 23N between 51W and 61W. Two more surface trough embedded within the trades are creating isolated thunderstorms from 16N to 25N between 38W and 49W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic ridge associated with a 1029 mb Azores High is sustaining gentle to locally moderate ENE to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas north of 20N between 40W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present north of 18N between the northwest African coast and 40W. Farther south, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident from 10N to 18N/20N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, broad surface ridge over the area will shift eastward tonight, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast of northeast Florida Thu night. The front will continue southeastward and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat night, then become mostly stationary along 24N Sun and dissipate through late Mon. $$ Chan