000 AXNT20 KNHC 120606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 12/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm (TS) Karl is centered near 20.5N 94.9W or 110 nm NE of Veracruz, Mexico and moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking at 9 to 11 ft near and north of the center. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm of the center. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are seen farther northeast and southeast from the west-central Gulf southeastward across the eastern Bay of Campeche to southeastern Mexico and western Guatemala. Karl is forecast to gradually turn toward the W and SW from Wed evening through Thu morning with little change in forward speed. This will bring Karl near the Mexican coast north of Heroica Veracruz on Thu morning. Some modest strengthening is expected through Thu morning, then a gradual weakening trend should follow. Heavy rainfall are anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and Southern Sierra Madre Oriental, and adjacent coast. Swells generate by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days, producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT@.shtml and the latest Karl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over west-central Africa is approaching the coastline of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Coupling with convergent monsoonal winds, numerous heavy showers are seen from 03N to 10N between these coastlines and 18W. This wave is going to exit into the Atlantic Ocean on Wed morning or afternoon. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 16N southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near the southern Cabo Verde Islands from 11N to 15N between 23W and 27W, and farther south from 03N to 08N between 25W and 29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 17N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 10N between 44W and 47W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W from near Anguilla southward into northeastern Venezuela, and moving west near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present across the Windward Islands, and Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are found over central Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the Guinea-Bissau coast to 07N21W. Refer to the first paragraph in the Tropical Waves section above for convection south of the trough. An ITCZ extends westward from 08N29W to 09N44W then, from 08N48W to just east of northern Guyana at 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed up to 120 nm north, and 160 nm south of both ITCZ segments. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms near Panama and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Karl located at the western Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the north-central Gulf. Convergent easterly winds are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southeastern Gulf, including the southwest coast of Florida. Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Karl, fresh to strong E to SE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are present over the west-central Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl will move to 21.0N 95.3W Wed morning, 21.4N 95.6W Wed evening, 21.1N 95.9W Thu morning, and 20.2N 96.2W Thu evening. Karl will move inland over Mexico to 19.4N 96.6W Fri morning, weaken to a remnant low near 19.1N 97.1W Fri evening, before dissipating by late Sat. Elsewhere, a cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Thu. The front will reach the central Gulf Fri, and move southeast of the Gulf Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern basin, just east of the Honduras-Nicaragua coast. Convergent trades are causing isolated thunderstorms near the Windward Passage and the southern coast of Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. Fresh to strong ENE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Fresh easterly winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are seen at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted for the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras will diminish through tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will pulse near the coast over the south-central basin through mid week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week. A cold front will enter the far northwest basin by Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N, between 73W and the Georgia-Florida coast. An upper- level low near 24N50W is producing scattered moderate convection well southeast of Bermuda from 22N to 26N between 54W and 59W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The southwestern end of the 1030 mb Azores High is promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 22N between 50W and 73W. To the west, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are found north of 22N between 73W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the east, moderate to locally fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 50W. Further south, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and 4 to 7 ft seas are present from 10N to 20N/22N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak trough off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas will lift northward and dissipate tonight as a broad high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. The high pressure will shift east through mid week ahead of a cold front expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu. The front will continue southeastward and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat, and from 31N60W to the Windward Passage Sun. $$ Chan