000 AXNT20 KNHC 110917 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad surface trough near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is generating sporadic deep convection across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, southeastern Mexico and western Guatemala. Heavy rain will increase the chance of flash flooding and mudslides, especially at hilly terrains. In the Gulf waters including the Bay of Campeche, heavy showers can cause reduced visibilities; fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are also expected. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development, and there is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical depression at the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours. Please read the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more detail. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave position was adjusted to near 28W from just west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 17N southward, and moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the islands from 12N to 16N between 22W and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave was introduced into the tropics from the mid latitudes near 39W, south of 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 10N between 35W and 40W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands near 56W/57W from 16N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active over the Leeward Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Senegal-Gambia border to southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands at 12N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N30W to 07N38W, and from 07N40W to 07N50W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 09N between 41W and 45W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near northwest Colombia and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information on the potential for tropical cyclone development in the southwestern Gulf. Recent Buoy observations and a scatterometer satellite pass indicate fresh to strong winds across the central and southwest Gulf, along with associated rough seas. Stronger gusts are possible near scattered showers and thunderstorms. Farther to the northeast, a stationary front extends west- southwestward from near Bradenton, Florida to the central Gulf. Moderate winds and seas are evident elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, outside of the southwest Gulf, the stationary front from near Bradenton, Florida to 26N93W will lift northward as a weak warm front over the eastern and central Gulf today while gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Thu. The front will reach the central Gulf Fri, and move southeast of the Gulf Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper low centered near 13N70W is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms around its periphery, over the eastern and south- central Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms are also active along the monsoon trough over the far southwest Caribbean, just north of Panama. Fresh winds are still active over the far northwest Caribbean, north of of Honduras and east of Belize. Fresh E winds are also active over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh winds over northwest Caribbean will diminish through tonight, while Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds pulsing near the coast over the south-central Caribbean will diminish by mid week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the far northwest Caribbean by Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak disturbance aloft in the subtropical jet stream is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms north of 29N between 65W and 75W, along a stationary front reaching from 31N72W to east-central Florida. A weak pressure pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas west of 55W. Farther east, an upper low is centered near 25N50W, with an associated surface trough from 32N50W to 25N55W. Farther east, moderate to fresh trades persist, with 5 to 7 ft seas, except for wave heights to 8 ft near 15N50W in lingering NE swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate at it lifts northward through tonight. Looking ahead, a new cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat. $$ Christensen