949 AXNT20 KNHC 102319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 16N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 16N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern end of the wave axis, particularly from 12N-15N between 51W-55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 13N17W to 07N30W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 03N-10N between 28W-47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida to 23N92W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds behind the front with seas of 6 to 8 ft across the central Gulf. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. A surface trough persist over the SW Gulf and runs from NE Mexico near 25N98W to the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N92W. The scatterometer pass also shows fresh to strong NW winds west of the trough near the Veracruz region. Gentle to moderate winds are ahead of the front, and E of the trough. Showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Yucatan peninsula and SE Mexico, associated with a trough of low pressure and the remnants of Julia. For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward as a weak warm front over the eastern and central Gulf into Tue while gradually dissipating. Expect mainly moderate to fresh NE winds across much of the basin through early Tue. Fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue. Another front will move into the northwest Gulf early Thu, and extending across the central Gulf Fri. Looking ahead, some development of the trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan peninsula is possible on Tuesday and Wednesday when the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Increasing upper-level winds should prevent significant development late this week. Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over portions of southern Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala during the next couple of days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Julia moved across southern Guatemala on Monday and dissipated. The National Hurricane Center issued the last advisory on this system at 10/2100 UTC. Satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong E to SE winds across the western Caribbean, mainly S of 20N and W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the Yucatan Channel where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas are observed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the NW Caribbean and parts of Central America, more concentrated over Nicaragua and NE Honduras. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted over parts of Cuba. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. An upper-level low over the eastern Caribbean continues to support some shower activity mainly E of 68W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the far northwest Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds pulsing near the coast over the south-central Caribbean will diminish by mid week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N74W to near Melbourne, Florida. Scattered showers are along the front. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the wake of the front, with seas of 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate E winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere west of 55W, except for winds of 15-20 kt across the southern Bahamas and near the northern approaches to the Windward Passage. Farther east, an upper low centered near 25N50W is generating an area of showers and thunderstorms from 23N-27N between 49W-55W. A surface trough, reflection of this low, is analyzed from 31N51W to 22N60W. To the east of the trough, a 1029 mb high pressure is centered W of the Azores near 35N36W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted along the southern periphery of this high center particularly between 30W and 50W. East of 35W, moderate NE winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front will be reinforced tonight and move slight southward. The front will stall from near Bermuda to east-central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate at it lifts northward through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri night to early Sat morning. $$ GR