569 AXNT20 KNHC 101732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ to 20N between Africa and the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally to isolated strong, is from 18N southward between 43W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N25W, to 07N28W 06N36W 05N43W 05N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 11N between the two tropical waves. Isolated moderate is from 03N to 10N from 20W eastward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N southward between 55W and 63W. It is possible that this precipitation may be related also to the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow that encompasses parts of the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 57W westward. Please, read the CARIBBEAN SEA section for more details. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through 31N75W, to Florida near 28N81W, to 24N92W in the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough passes through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coastal plains of the middle Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N southward from 96W eastward in general...from the stationary front southward. Fresh to strong winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet, are in the central Gulf of Mexico. This is happening between high pressure that is in Mississippi, and lower pressure that is in the western Caribbean Sea and in the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Fresh to strong NW winds are in the far SW Gulf, along the coast of the Mexican state of Veracruz, to the west of the surface trough that is in the area. The sea heights were reaching 9 feet off the port of Veracruz in Mexico. Moderate NE winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. A stationary front from near Sarasota, Florida to 25N93W will move northward as a weak warm front over the eastern and central Gulf into Tue while gradually dissipating. Expect mainly moderate to fresh NE winds across much of the basin through early Tue. Fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue. Looking ahead, another front will move into the northwest Gulf early Thu, and extending across the central Gulf Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The center of Tropical Depression Julia, at 10/1500 UTC, is near 14.1N 90.3W, in the coastal plains of southern Guatemala. This position also is about 60 km/33 nm to the ENE of Puerto San Jose in Guatemala. Julia is moving WNW, or 300 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. A NW- to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the Caribbean Sea coast of Honduras near 86W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong is in the central sections of Belize, and in the NE sections of Guatemala that are adjacent to the central sections of Belize. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the south central sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the western half of El Salvador, and the in the rest of Guatemala. Scattered moderate to strong is in the NW Caribbean Sea within 60 nm on either side of the line from 19N82W into the Yucatan Channel. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is between 80W in the Caribbean Sea and 98W, including in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in interior sections of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, from 23N southward between 56W and 75W. A surface trough passes through the Mona Passage, along 21N68W 14N69W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is on the northern side of the cyclonic wind flow from 20N to 23N between 60W and 70W, and on western side of the area of cyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 73W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N southward between 55W in the Atlantic Ocean and 63W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong E winds, and sea heights reaching 8 feet, have been in the far NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet in the rest of the NW corner of the area. Moderate winds and seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The exception is for: fresh winds in the Windward Passage; off Cabo Beata of Hispaniola; and between central Panama and San Andres Island in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the far northwest Caribbean through late today. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds pulsing near the coast over the south-central Caribbean will diminish by mid week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N74W, to Florida near 28N81W, into the central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is about 130 nm to the SSE of the stationary front, from the NW Bahamas northeastward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 31N58W 27N65W 27N80W northward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 20N northward between 43W and 63W. A surface trough is along 31N52W 26N57W 21N60W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is from 22N northward between 44W and the surface trough. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 36N36W. Gentle to moderate E winds, and moderate seas, are from 55W westward, except for wind speeds to 20 knots in the southern Bahamas and near the northern approaches to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are to the south of the 1030 mb high pressure center, between 35W and 55W. Moderate NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 35W eastward. A stationary front, from 31N74W to near Palm Bay in Florida, will be reinforced today and move slightly southward. The front will stall from near Bermuda to east-central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate as it moves northward through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri night to early Sat morning. $$ MT