000 AXNT20 KNHC 100003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 12.5N 87.6W at 10/0000 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Julia has emerged into the Eastern Pacific. This is the second time this year that a tropical cyclone has maintained its status while crossing the Atlantic basin into the eastern Pacific region. The other was Bonnie in July this season. Bands of rain associated with the large circulation of Julia are affecting Central America, and the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong SE winds are noted per scatterometer. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact Central America and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America and SE Mexico through early this week. Swells generated by Julia continue to affect Providencia and San Andres Islands and the Caribbean coast of Central America, but should gradually subside through Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Julia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is crossing the Cabo Verde Islands. It axis is along 23W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. A few showers are near the wave axis. A second tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis from 09N to 11N between 44W and 48W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 07N45W, then resumes at 07N48W to the coast of Guyana near 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 30W and 38W, and within about 110 nm N of the ITCZ between 50W and 55W.twdat ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from across the northern Gulf waters from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Brownsville, Texas. Scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE winds on either side on the front with seas of 4-7 ft based on altimeter data. A stationary front is analyzed over SE Florida and the Florida keys into the Straits of Florida to near 23N85W. Some shower activity is associated with the front. Fresh to locally strong NW winds persist across the Veracruz area. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, the western half of the cold front will weaken and dissipate tonight as the eastern portion stalls across the southeast Gulf on Mon after merging with a leading stationary front that is transitioning to a warm front this evening. The front will then lift north Tue while dissipating. Expect mainly moderate to fresh NE winds across much of the basin through late Tue as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the Gulf region and lower pressure across the Pacific offshores waters. Otherwise, fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about Tropical Storm Julia. The pressure gradient associated with the broad ridge over the central United States and tropical cyclone Julia supports moderate to locally strong NE-E winds in the western Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras with seas of 6-8 ft. Another area of fresh to locally strong SE winds is noted over the SW Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua based on satellite derived wind data. Seas are 5-7 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean. Abundant showers with embedded tstms are affecting the eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, the UK/US Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. This convective activity is related to an upper-level low spinning over the NE Caribbean. Upper diffluent on the SE side of the low is also helping to induce convection in the area, including parts of Venezuela, and Guyana. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia will move to 12.8N 88.7W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 13.6N 90.7W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Fresh to locally strong winds across the Central America offshore waters from Nicaragua to western Panama will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds tonight, however fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast to prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front remains across the SW N Atlantic and extends from SE of Bermuda near 31N63W to SE Florida. Scattered showers and tstms activity is associated with the front. A cold follows this front and runs from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. The cold front continues across northern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the wake of the cold front. Farther east, an upper-level low is centered near 27N51W, with an associated surface trough extending 31N48W to 21N56W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active from 21N to 28N between 44W and 52W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of 1027 mb high pressure located W of the Azores near 35N36W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge between 25W and 45W. Seas are 6-8 ft within these winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned fronts are expected to merge. The merging front will lift N through Mon morning and then meander across the offshore waters N of Freeport through Tue before lifting N of the area on Wed. High pressure building N of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 25N through early Thu and NE to E winds of similar speeds N of the frontal boundary through Wed. Seas will be slight to moderate during the forecast period. $$ GR/SDR