000 AXNT20 KNHC 091024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Julia is centered near 12.4N 84.0W at 09/0900 UTC or 30 nm NNW of Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous strong thunderstorms are noted within about 90 nm of the center with scattered moderate to strong convection extending up to 480 nm from the center in outer rain bands. The peak seas near the center are 18 ft, limited by the proximity of the land. Julia will be entirely onshore over Nicaragua later this morning. Weakening is expected as this happens, but it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late today or tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W, south of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 11N to 13N between 18W and 20W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W, south of 16N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 07N25W to 06N30N. The ITCZ extends from 06N39W to 07N43W, and from 08N45W to 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 08N to 10N and between 52W and 58W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Cedar Key, Florida to 27N90W, and then is stationary to Brownsville, Texas. Ship, buoy and platform observations show moderate to fresh NE winds north of the front, mainly across the coastal waters of the northern Gulf. A trough is analyzed across the far southwest Gulf, and fresh NW winds are funneling along the coast of Veracruz, Mexico west of the trough. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, the front will continue south and reach from near Port Charlotte, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico in the southwest Gulf by late today. The western half of the front will dissipate Mon as the eastern portion stalls across the southeast Gulf. The front will then lift north Tue while dissipating. Expect increasing NE winds across much of the basin through late Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the Gulf region and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. An area of fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on Hurricane Julia along the coast of Nicaragua. The pressure gradient associated with the broad ridge over the central United States and Hurricane Julia sustain moderate to locally strong E-NE winds in the western Caribbean Sea. Recent buoy observations along with data from an earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong northerly winds are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean Sea, just outside of the influence of Julia. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean. Water vapor imagery depict an upper level low near the Leeward Islands. Abundant moisture and divergence aloft result in isolated to scattered showers affecting the eastern Caribbean waters, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. For the forecast, Hurricane Julia will move inland over Nicaragua this morning and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.5N 86.2W this afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish today, but persist over the northwest Caribbean west of 85w through Tue. Generally moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere through mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is off northeast Florida from 31N78W to St Augustine Florida. Farther east, a weak stationary front reaches from 31N63W to 28N72W, with a trailing trough extending over the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. A few showers may be active along the stationary front. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas persist west of 55W, except for fresh E winds funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola. Farther east, an upper low is centered over 26N48W, with an associated surface trough from 27N44W to 20N51W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere west of 50W. Farther east, seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell are evident from 10N to 20N between 35W and 50W. Moderate winds and seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front off northeast Florida will drift south and stall from 31N72W to near Fort Pierce, Florida tonight. The front will meander little into Tue before dissipating by through late Tue. Winds will increase slightly north of 29N through mid week as high pressure builds north of the area. $$ Christensen