602 AXNT20 KNHC 081604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Oct 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 12.6N 79.9W at 08/1500 UTC or 100 nm ESE of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong thunderstorms are noted within about 90 nm of the center with scattered moderate to strong convection extending up to 360 nm from the center in outer rain bands. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 90 nm on in the NE quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater are expected within 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 45 nm in the SE quadrant, 30 nm in the SW quadrant and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. The peak seas near the center are estimated at 19 ft. Julia is expected to intensify to a hurricane later today as the center moves near San Andres and Providencia Islands before a landfall in Nicaragua early Sunday morning. The potential for regeneration in the Pacific is increasing, and coastal tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for parts of the Central American Pacific coast. Rain will soon begin to fall over coastal Nicaragua, with storm totals of 12-16 inches possible near the landfall location. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America this weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office and read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 39W, from the equator to 14N, moving W at 12 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 01N to 07N, between 39W and 45W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 07N18N. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 05N38W where the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues west of the wave from 04N42W to 02N51W along the NE coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N, between 18W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure ridging over the Gulf and Tropical Storm Julia in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds across the basin with 2-4 ft seas, on a building trend. For the forecast, a cold front is expected to reach the northern Gulf waters later this morning, move across the central Gulf through late today, then stall over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun before dissipating Mon. Expect increasing NE winds across much of the basin Sun afternoon through late Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the Gulf region and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf through mid week, except for occasional strong NW winds and rough seas over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Julia in the southwest Caribbean Sea. Marine impacts from Tropical Storm Julia extend throughout the majority of the basin, with the exception of the far eastern Caribbean where conditions are moderate. In the central Caribbean winds are fresh from the east with an abating swell to 8 ft from Julia's passage yesterday. In the NW Caribbean, winds are fresh from the NE with 4-6 ft seas on a building trend. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia near 12.6N 79.9W 994 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Julia will strengthen to a hurricane near 12.5N 81.9W this evening, move inland to 12.5N 84.3W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.7N 86.9W Sun evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 13.2N 89.5W Mon morning, become a remnant low and move to 13.7N 91.9W Mon evening, and dissipate Tue morning. Strong winds and rough seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean through Mon, then diminish. Looking ahead, expect moderate winds and seas across the basin by mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N62W, across the northern Bahamas to 25N80W near south Florida. Weak showers and moderate to fresh winds are noted within 60 nm of the boundary. Otherwise, gentle to moderate E-NE winds and 3-6 ft seas dominate the sub-basin. In the central Atlantic, subtropical high pressure north of the area is supporting mainly moderate to fresh easterly wind with 5-8 ft seas. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by moderate to fresh NE wind and 5-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from near 31N61W to 28N70W to the northern Bahamas. The front will linger over the area, and dissipate by late today just ahead of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight. The second front will sweep southeastward, stall from near Bermuda to South Florida Sun, then will weaken through Tue. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will move into the waters north of 29N late Tue and Wed. $$ Flynn