000 AXNT20 KNHC 080956 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 12.7N 78.0W at 08/0900 UTC or 200 nm ESE of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous strong thunderstorms are noted within 900 nm of the center. The 12 ft seas extend 150 nm within the NE quadrant, 90 nm in the NW quadrant, and 45 nm in the SE quadrant with peak seas to 16 ft. Julia will intensify to a hurricane later today as the center moves near San Andres and Providencia Islands. Julia will make landfall over the coast of Nicaragua tonight, then weaken as it moves inland over northern Central America, and eventually dissipates Tue. Swells generated by Julia are reaching Jamaica, Providencia and San Andres Islands, and will reach portions of the coast of Central America by late today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 38W, south of 10N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 03N between 37W and 39W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 05N35W, and from 04N40W to 00N50W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 05N between 25W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A trough extends across the far western Gulf, along the coast of Mexico. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NW winds funneling along the coast of Veracruz, Mexico in the far southwest Gulf, west of the trough. Elsewhere, weak high pressure dominates, supporting light and variable breezes and slight seas over the northern Gulf, and gentle to moderate E breezes with moderate seas elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front is expected to reach the northern Gulf waters later this morning, move across the central Gulf through late today, then stall over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun before dissipating Mon. Expect increasing NE winds across much of the basin Sun afternoon through late Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the Gulf region and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf through mid week, except for occasional strong NW winds and rough seas over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Julia in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are evident over much of the southwest Caribbean, outside of the immediate area of impact near Julia, and along the north coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are noted outside of the area of Julia. A recent altimeter satellite pass confirmed seas in excess of 8 ft between 70W and 80W. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean. Slight seas are evident over much of the northwest Caribbean, although these seas are building as winds increase as Julia moves into the southwest Caribbean. For the forecast, Julia will strengthen to a hurricane near 12.6N 80.4W this afternoon, move to 12.5N 82.9W Sun morning, then move inland along the coast of Nicaragua and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.7N 85.2W Sun afternoon. Julia will continue westward to 13.2N 87.8W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 13.8N 89.9W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Strong winds and rough seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean Mon and Tue, then diminish. Looking ahead, expect moderate winds and seas across the basin by mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from near 31N61W to 28N72W to the northern Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Showers are within 50 nm of the boundary. The front disrupts the subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1021 mb high east of Bermuda, and 1026 high west of the Azores. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong winds funneling off the higher terrain of Hispaniola. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere west of 50W. Farther east, seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell are evident from 10N to 20N between 35W and 50W. Moderate winds and seas persist elsewhere. A few showers are evident near upper lows centered near the Leeward Islands and near 25N45W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will linger over the area this morning and dissipate later today just ahead of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight. The second front will sweep southeastward, stall from near Bermuda to South Florida Sun, then will weaken through Tue. Looking ahead, another weak front will move into the waters north of 29N late Tue and Wed. Looking ahead, another weak front will move into the waters north of 29N late Tue and Wed. $$ Christensen