000 AXNT20 KNHC 072256 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Oct 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 13.0N 74.7W at 07/2100 UTC or 130 nm N of Barranquilla Colombia, moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are active within 300 nm of the center. Seas to 12 ft are likely within 90 nm in the northern semicircle of Julia. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over Central America by Monday. Strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday. Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 16N16W to 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W to 02N50W near NE Brazil. Scattered showers are noted along the boundaries between 25W-43W. A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 12N75W to 09N82W. This is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean south of 15N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough in the western Gulf is triggering scattered weak convection from 22N to 26N, between 93W and 97W. To the SE, the tail end of a stationary front extends along 23N and E of 83W. Otherwise, weak high pressure is supporting gentle to moderate NE winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, a cold front is expected to reach the northern Gulf waters tonight, move across the central Gulf Sat, then stall over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun before dissipating Mon. Expect increasing NE winds across much of the basin Sun afternoon through late Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the Gulf region and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Strom Julia in the south-central Caribbean Sea. As Tropical Storm Julia tracks along the south central Caribbean, sea heights are elevated across the basin. Easterly winds are fresh to strong and seas rough to very rough between 69W and 77W. Conditions are moderate throughout the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia near 13.0N 74.7W 1002 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Julia will move to 13.1N 77.3W Sat morning, 13.0N 80.1W Sat afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.0N 82.5W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 13.2N 85.0W Sun afternoon, and weaken to a tropical depression near 13.5N 87.5W Mon morning, and inland to 14.3N 89.8W Mon afternoon. Julia will dissipate Tue afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening, and along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area Sunday morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N63W to a weak low pressure system over the central Bahamas near 25N77W and continues to the northern coast of Cuba. Immediately NW of the boundary, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 3-5 ft seas. Otherwise, winds are gentle to moderate with slight seas. In the central Atlantic, easterly winds are moderate to fresh with 4-8 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient is causing fresh NE winds and 6-10 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will linger over the area, and dissipate by late Sat just ahead of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sat night. The second front will sweep southeastward, stall from near Bermuda to South Florida Sun, then will weaken through Tue. $$ ERA