000 AXNT20 KNHC 070547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Oct 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered near 11.9N 69.8W at 07/0300 UTC or 50 nm WSW of Curacao and is moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted around the center of T.D. Thirteen from 10N to 13N between 69W and 72W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of the low from 13N to 15N between 69W and 74W. Seas are ranging 8-12 ft in the south central Caribbean. The depression will generally move westward through Sun. On the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia tonight through Fri morning. The system is then forecast to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, moving near San Andres and Providencia Islands Sat night, and approaching the coast of Nicaragua on Sun morning. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next 12-24 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Fri morning. After that, a faster rate of strengthening is likely, with the system expected to become a hurricane by Sat night as it approaches San Andres and Providencia Islands. Heavy rainfall will impact the ABC Islands, portions of South America and Central America in addition to dangerous swell. Interests in those locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml for more details. The Remnants Of Twelve is centered near 18.6N 36.8W at 07/0300 UTC or 750 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 160 nm in the NE quadrant. Seas range 8-10 ft around the center. The remnants will dissipate overnight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://www.gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 13N27W. The ITCZ extends from 03N33W to 05N45W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 20W and 30W and from 08N to 12N between 44W and 60W. A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extending from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W to northern Colombia. This is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean south of 18N between 78W and 85W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure stretches across the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening stationary front extends through the Straits of Florida into the southeast Gulf with showers along the boundary. A trough extends off the South Texas coast from 23N94W to 27N97W. Another trough extends along the southern Mexico coast from 19N95W to 22N97W. No significant convection is associated with these features. Winds are light to gentle in the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate easterly winds in the central and western basin. Seas range 1-3 ft. For the forecast, the weak stationary front across the Straits of Florida will gradually weaken and dissipate overnight. A cold front is expected to move into the coastal Gulf States Fri night, the central Gulf Sat, then stall over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun before dissipating Mon. Expect fresh northeast to east winds across the southeastern Gulf Sat through early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure north of the fronts and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Depression Thirteen. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Gulf of Honduras, S of 19N and W of 84W. Scattered thunderstorms are also around Cuba and Jamaica. Otherwise, widespread strong winds are noted in the central Caribbean associated with T.D. Thirteen. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern and western Caribbean. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Thirteen is near 11.9N 69.8W 1004 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Thirteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.4N 72.0W Fri morning, move to 13.0N 75.0W Fri evening, 13.2N 78.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.2N 80.7W Sat evening, 13.3N 83.1W Sun morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm over Nicaragua near 13.9N 85.4W Sun evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast winds slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin through late Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh over the south- western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between T.D. Thirteen and strong high pressure north of the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on the remnants of Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin. In the western Atlantic, a cold front is analyzed from 31N63W to a 1015 mb low pressure east of the Bahamas near 26N75W. A stationary front extends west of the low to the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of the front N of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted N of the Lesser Antilles from 17N to 22N between 54W and 63W. Moderate winds are noted north of the low. Light to gentle northerly winds are noted elsewhere north of the front. Seas range 3-5 ft. In the central Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 31N between 29W and 39W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the area with strong winds along the remnants of Twelve. Seas range 6-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure associated with the remnants of Twelve and the monsoon trough is causing fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the western Atlantic is expected to become stationary overnight, and dissipate by late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward reaching from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to vicinity South Florida and the Straits of Florida Sun and also stall. Expect northeast winds to increase to fresh speeds across the central and southern Bahamas starting tonight as the gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to the north of them. $$ AReinhart