000 AXNT20 KNHC 062106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 18.8N 35.8W at 06/2100 UTC or 700 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas are peaking at 9-11 ft near and northeast of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 360 nm in the northeast quadrant. Strong west-southwesterly shear is expected to increase further while the surrounding thermodynamic environment continues to dry out over the next couple days. Therefore, it is still anticipated that the depression will degenerate into a remnant low soon, and dissipate in a day or so. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://www.gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details. Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is centered near 11.6N 68.7W at 06/2100 UTC or 40 nm SSE of Curacao moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking at 9-11 ft, on a building trend. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is south of 16N between 59W and 75W, including over portions of Venezuela, northern Colombia, and the ABC Islands. The system is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm by tonight. The system is then expected to become a hurricane by Sat night as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua. Regardless of development, gusty winds to gale force and heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, northern Venezuela, and the island chain of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao during the next day or two. Heavy rains and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides are expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend. Interests in those locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to 15N26W. The ITCZ extends from 10N41W to 09N57W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 42W and 59W. A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extending from the border of Costa Rica and Panama to northern Colombia is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean south of 15N between 75W and 85W including over portions of nearby areas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Overall, weak high pressure is creating favorable marine conditions in the Gulf. A stationary front extends through the Straits of Florida along 23N to the SE Gulf near 24N87W. A surface trough extends from offshore Texas near 27N96W to 23N93W. North and northeast of these boundaries, winds are moderate from the NE with 1-3 ft seas. South of the boundaries, winds are gentle from the NE-E with 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually weaken and dissipate by Sat. High pressure north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas through tonight. A cold front is expected to move into the coastal Gulf States on Fri, the central Gulf Sat and the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun, then stall. Expect fresh northeast to east winds across the southeastern Gulf starting Fri and through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure north of the fronts and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen near the north coast of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas dominate the central and eastern basin. Moderate NE winds and 2-4 ft seas dominate the NW basin. A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras is supporting scattered moderate convection in the area. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen will move to 12.0N 70.7W Fri morning, 12.6N 73.6W Fri afternoon, 13.0N 76.7W Sat morning, 13.0N 79.6W Sat afternoon, 13.1N 81.9W Sun morning, and inland to 13.3N 84.1W Sun afternoon. Thirteen will move inland near 14.8N 89.1W Mon afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast winds slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin through late Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh over the south-western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between PTC Thirteen and strong high pressure north of the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin. In the western Atlantic, a cold front is analyzed from 31N64W to a 1015 weak low pressure center near 26N74W. A stationary front continues from the low to the Straits of Florida. Behind the front winds are gentle from the NW, except moderate NE winds within 75 nm west of the front. Seas are 3-5 ft west of the front. Ahead of the front winds are moderate with 3-5 ft seas. East of 65W, winds shift to a moderate SE breeze with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas dominate. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure associated with Tropical Depression Twelve and the monsoon trough is causing fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the front is expected to become fully stationary by tonight, and dissipate by late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward reaching from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to vicinity South Florida and the Straits of Florida Sun and also stall. Expect for northeast winds to increase to fresh speeds over the southwest part of the area and Straits of Florida starting tonight as the gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to the north of them. $$ Lewitsky