000 AXNT20 KNHC 060606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Oct 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twelve... Tropical Depression (TD) Twelve is centered near 17.7N 32.5W at 06/0300 UTC or 500 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas are peaking at 8 to 10 ft near and north of the center. Scattered moderate convection is found mainly northeast of the center from 17N to 19N between 30W and 32W. TD Twelve is forecast to continue in a NW motion while weakening to a remnant low or trough in the next 24 to 48 hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://www.gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Wave/Broad Low Pressure... A tropical wave extends southward from south of the Virgin Islands across a broad 1007 mb low near Margarita Island at 11.4N 64.4W into northern Venezuela. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data and wave model output reveal fresh to strong ENE to SE winds with 8 to 10 ft seas associated with this system at the southeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring near the ABC and Windward Islands, and over northern and central Venezuela. As this system tracks westward over the next couple of days, these inclement weather will spread over northern Colombia. This system has a high chance of development for the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form at the south-central Caribbean Sea north of Colombia. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott to near the Cabo Verde Islands. No significant convection is seen near the monsoon trough. An ITCZ curves westward from 11N37W across 09N45W to northeast of Guyana at 10N57W. Isolated thunderstorms are present near and up to 80 nm north of the ITCZ. Convergent northerly winds near a surface ridge separating these two features are triggering scattered moderate convection from 02N to 07N between 20W and 25W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama and northern Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A modest cold front extends westward from the Florida Straits to the southeastern Gulf, while a surface trough is southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. These features are causing patchy showers from the southeastern Gulf to the west-central Gulf. Otherwise, the southern periphery of a 1019 mb high over the Gulf States are supporting gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas for the entire Gulf. For the forecast, the front will drift a bit south today, then stall and dissipate by late Sat. The high will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas through tonight. Another cold front is expected to move over the coast of the Gulf States on Fri, the central Gulf Sat and then the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun, before stalling early next week. Expect fresh NE to E winds across the southeastern Gulf Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between high and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on potential flooding rain and tropical cyclone development related to a tropical wave/broad low pressure near the north coast of Venezuela. A surface trough is generating isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras. Convergent trades are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over southwestern Haiti and nearby waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. Outside of impacts from the tropical wave/broad low pressure, moderate to locally fresh ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are found in the central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the western basin. For the forecast, rainy and gusty conditions along with rough seas will persist across the east-central and southeastern basin through Thu night. The tropical wave/broad low will track across the south-central basin Fri through early Sat, and the southwestern basin through early Sun before moving inland over Central America around late Sun. It is expected to bring strong winds with possible gusts to gale force, locally heavy rain and rough seas to these regions. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the basin through late Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh across the western basin Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin. A mostly dry cold front is curves southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N67W and the central Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Convergent southerly winds to its east are triggering scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 61W and 71W. Strong divergence associated with an upper-level low near 24N36W is enhancing scattered moderate convection near its center, and west of the Canary Islands from 22N to 28N between 25W and 31W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted east of the cold front, north of 26N eastward to 57W. Mostly gentle northerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in northerly swell are present behind the cold front to the Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NNE to E trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft exist near and southwest of the Canary Islands, north of 21N between the northwest African coast and 35W. To the south, Over the central Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident from 09N to 31N/22N between 36W and the Lesser Antilles/southeast Bahamas. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin outside the influence of Tropical Depression Twelve, light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas are present. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall from near Bermuda to the central/southeast Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Fri before dissipating by late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward reaching from near Bermuda across the central Bahamas to southern Florida/Florida Straits Sun and then stall early next week. Expect NE winds to increase to fresh over the southwest part of the area and Straits of Florida starting late Thu as the gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to the north. $$ Chan