000 AXNT20 KNHC 020402 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 29W, from 02N to 16N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N, between 21W and 34W. Although the organization of this system has not improved since yesterday, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves westward, then turns northwestward or northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance through the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 44W, from 02N to 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 13N, between 40W and 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 08N34W. The ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 09N41W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N45W to 07N58W along the coast of Guyana. Convection is mostly isolated and weak outside of the tropical wave activity described above. GULF OF MEXICO... Marine conditions are favorable in the Gulf of Mexico with a gentle northerly breeze and slight seas across the basin. Dry air is suppressing any significant convection. For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from central Cuba to the coastal waters of central Panama. This feature continues to drive the weather in the SW and central Caribbean, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over South America is supporting moderate trade winds in the eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft seas. This gradient relaxes across the remainder of the basin where winds are gentle and seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to persist over the western Caribbean through at least Tue. A tropical wave, currently located along 44W should reach 55W/56W by Tue bringing some increase in winds and seas to the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary boundary extends across the western Atlantic from 31N75W, across the Bahamas, to 22N78W along the central Cuban coast. West of the boundary, winds are light to gentle with 4-6 ft swell and clear skies. East of the boundary, winds are moderate to fresh from the S with 5-7 ft seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend east of the boundary to 70W. High pressure dominates the central Atlantic where easterly winds are light to gentle with 3-5 ft seas north of 20N, and moderate with 4-6 ft seas south of 20N. A tighter pressure gradient in the eastern Atlantic is causing moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends east of Florida from 31N75W to 22N78W. This front should be reinforced by a cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida on Sun. The combined frontal boundary should reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by early Mon morning, and from 31N66W to the central Bahamas by early Tue morning. $$ Flynn