000 AXNT20 KNHC 012354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of 16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 13N, between 16W and 29W. This wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance over the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 14N, between 36W and 47W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 12N16W to 09N25W to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 09N42W and then from 09N44W to 11N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is off the W coast of Africa from 04N to 13N between 08W and 19W, and from 09N to 16N between 50W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds are basin-wide with seas to 3 ft. Except for the Yucatan channel where low level precipitable water imagery show shallow moisture, the remainder basin is under the influence of deep layer dry air, which is supporting fair weather. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to build across the Gulf waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from central Cuba SW to a 1008 mb low near 15N81W to the coastal waters of central Panama. This feature continues to drive the weather in the SW and central Caribbean, supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms in those regions. This shower activity is being reinforced by middle and upper level divergent and diffluent flow. In terms of winds and seas, a weak pressure gradient in this region is providing mainly light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Over the E Caribbean, the presence of the Bermuda High tighten the pressure gradient slightly, thus supporting slightly higher winds of gentle to moderate speeds with locally fresh trades in the far SE basin. For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to persist over the western Caribbean through at least Tue. A tropical wave, currently located along 42W/43W should reach 55W/56W by Tue bringing some increase in winds and seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 36.8N 78.8W at 01/2100 UTC or 80 nm WSW of Richmond Virginia moving ENE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas subsided to just less than 8 ft in the SW N Atlantic waters just E of the Bahamas to 60W. A stationary front extends from 31N75W SW to Andros Island and central Cuba. To the east of the front to 60W, moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail with seas between 5 to 7 ft. West of the frontal boundary and along the Florida seaboard winds are gentle to locally moderate with seas in the 2-4 ft range. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores and Bermuda Highs, which are supporting light to gentle variable winds, except E of 26W where NE moderate to fresh winds are present with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front should be reinforced by another cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by early Mon morning, and extend from 31N66W to the central Bahamas by early Tue morning. $$ Ramos