897 AXNT20 KNHC 011715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 36.4N 79.9W at 01/1500 UTC or 140 nm WSW of Richmond, VA moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas greater than 8 ft with mixed swell are still affecting the W Atlantic waters N of 27N and W of 70W. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. A gradual weakening trend is forecast through Sunday. The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on Ian. Ian was a historic hurricane that made landfall in western Cuba (category 3), SW Florida (category 4) and South Carolina (category 1), producing damaging winds, catastrophic storm surge and flooding. Future information on Ian can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of 16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 13N, between 16W and 29W. This wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance over the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 14N, between 36W and 47W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 12N17W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W to 09N39W and then from 09N41W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N and between 47W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico and the dry continental airmass over the region maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate or weaker northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle to locally moderate northerly winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean Sea remains quite unsettled due to surface features and divergence aloft. A surface trough extends from south-central Cuba to just north of Panama and a 1008 mb low pres is analyzed along the trough near 14N81W. An upper level low over the SE Bahamas, the mentioned surface trough and plenty of tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms covering most of the central, SW and eastern Caribbean. In contrast, a dry continental airmass being pushed southward by the remnants of Hurricane Ian has taken residence in the NW Caribbean, providing fairly tranquil weather conditions for the region. A few showers are seen near the Bay Islands and surrounding waters. The weak pressure environment allows for moderate or weaker winds over the central, SW and NW Caribbean Sea, while moderate to fresh easterly winds are found in the eastern portion of the basin. Locally fresh northwesterly winds are occurring in off the northern coast of Honduras and off Nicaragua, mainly within 60 nm of the coast. Seas are 2-4 ft in the Bay of Honduras and eastern Caribbean and 1-2 ft elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, a surface trough should persist over the W Caribbean through early next week. Moderate NW to N winds are expected west of the trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE trades and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian and impacted waters please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above. A stationary front extends from 31N75W to 24N78W and a surface trough continues southward to the north-central coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are present near these boundaries, affecting the NW and central Bahamas and surrounding waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh southerly winds extend from the Bahamas and eastern Greater Antilles northward and between 55W and 77W. Swell associated with former Hurricane Ian continues to propagate southward and seas greater than 8 ft are found N of 26N and between 71W and 75W. The rest of the basin between 55W and the surface features mentioned, seas are 4-8 ft. The upper level low over the SE Bahamas is enhancing the shower activity from the eastern Greater Antilles and 25N and between 58W and the SE Bahamas. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N34W to 21N45W and scattered showers are noted within 200 nm east of the trough axis and N of 27N. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad ridge centered east of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa result in fresh to locally strong NE winds N of 25N and E of 27W. Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. A bit south, moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are occurring from 12N to 25N and E of 35W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, an early season cold front has become stationary east of Florida in the wake of Ian. This front should be reinforced by another cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should reach from near 31N70W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba by early Mon morning and extend from 31N67W to the SE Bahamas by early Tue morning. $$ DELGADO