000 AXNT20 KNHC 010958 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 35.7N 79.8W at 01/0900 UTC or 30 nm S of Greensboro North Carolina moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas of 8-11 ft with mixed swell are still affecting the W Atlantic waters N of 28N and W of 71W. Ian will become extratropical and move to 36.8N 79.6W this afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W, from 02N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 12N, between 17W and 27W. This wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance over the next 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W, from 04N to 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N, between 38W and 46W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 09N35W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 10N42W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 32W and 35W, and from 08N to 14N between 48W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure in the western Gulf and generally lower pressure in the western Atlantic in the wake of Ian is supporting moderate northerly flow across the basin with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, a stationary front prevails east of Florida. Cool, dry conditions are accompanying the gentle N winds across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the western Caribbean from 20N79W to a 1008b mb low near 15N81W to 13N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with these features are observed from 11N to 20N between 72W and 85W, including the Windward Passage. Similar convection is noted E of 70W in the eastern Caribbean. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are gentle to moderate across the basin with slight seas. 2-4 ft northerly swell is gradually abating tonight in the far NW basin. For the forecast, the surface trough should persist over the W Caribbean through early next week. Moderate NW to N winds are expected west of the trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE trades and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian and impacted waters please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above. Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. 8-11 ft swell from Ian currently extends W to 71W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N75W to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W as a dissipating boundary. North of 20N between 66W and the front, winds are fresh and seas near 5-7 ft. In the central Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the E with 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 6-8 ft seas. A recent scatterometer pass revealed an area of strong to near gale force winds near the southern coast of Morocco, where seas are 8-12 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will become extratropical and move to 36.8N 79.6W this afternoon, and dissipate on Sun morning. The swell generated by Ian W of 71W will dissipate today. An early season cold front has become stationary east of Florida in the wake of Ian. This front should weaken today, but be reinforced by another cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should reach from near 31N70W to 25N75W by Mon morning and dissipate by Tue. $$ ERA