000 AXNT20 KNHC 261801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Sep 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1755 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ian continues to intensify. Ian is centered near 19.7N 83.0W at 26/1800 UTC or 170 nm SE of the western tip of Cuba. The hurricane is moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 nm from the center in the N semicircle, 70 nm in the SE quadrant, and 30 nm in the SW quadrant. The sea heights are 12 ft or greater within 120 nm of the center N semicircle and 60 nm in the S semicircle, with peak seas of around 22 ft. Strong winds and seas of at least 8 ft associate with Ian encompass an area from 17N to 22N between 78W and 85W. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. An area of low pressure with 1008 mb located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 14N36W, continues to produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 12N to 16N and between 31W and 40W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong winds are occurring in the northern and eastern quadrants. Seas are 8-9 ft. Despite the proximity of nearby dry air, upper-level winds appear generally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the end of this week, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for development as the system begins to move slowly north- northwestward. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... No tropical waves are present at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 09N25W to 13N33W. The ITCZ extends from 09N43W to 14N61W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 18N and E of 22W. Similar convection is present from 09N to 16N and between 52W and 62W, affecting parts of the Lesser Antilles. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details regarding Hurricane Ian. A surface trough is analyzed near the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough axis. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Surface and satellite-derived wind data indicate that moderate or weaker winds prevail across the Gulf, except for fresh to locally strong NW winds in the SW Gulf associated with the convection in the area. Seas in the Gulf are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is near 19.1N 82.7W 980 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Ian is expected to intensify rapidly through the next 36 hours. Ian will move across W Cuba tonight and reach near 22.7N 84W Tue morning as a major hurricane, near 26.1N 83.8W Wed morning, near 27.2N 83.5W Thu morning and then inland across N Florida late Thu night to early Fri morning. Expect hazardous conditions in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida beginning before midnight tonight, then spreading north and northwestward across the E and central Gulf Tue through early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Ian. Outside of the influence of Hurricane Ian, fairly tranquil conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. A weak pressure gradient result in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle southerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft are found in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is near 19.1N 82.7W 980 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Ian is expected to intensify rapidly through the next 36 hours. Ian will move to near 20.7N 83.5W this evening, near 22.7N 84W Tue morning as a major hurricane, near 24.5N 84W Tue evening, then near 26.1N 83.8W Wed morning, before veering NNE across the NE Gulf of Mexico and inland across N Florida late Thu night to early Fri morning. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue evening, before winds and seas gradually subside as Ian moves N of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Ian and on an area of low pressure well west of the Cabo Verde islands that has potential to develop into a tropical depression this week. A weak surface trough near South Florida and divergence aloft result in scattered showers near the NW Bahamas and off SE Florida. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N62W to 28N68W and only a few showers are noted the trough axis. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail W of 60W. In the north-central tropical Atlantic, a large swell region is producing seas of 8-11 ft N of 20N and between 35W and 60W. Winds in these waters are mainly moderate to locally fresh. Meanwhile, the remnants of Hermine are located near 25N20W and a surface trough extends from the low pressure to 20N25W. Only a few showers are noted near the remnants of Hermine and trough axis. The pressure gradient between a strong high pressure north of Azores and lower pressures associated with the remnants of Hermine and NW Africa result in fresh to strong NE winds N of 25N and E of 30W. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad ridge that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. In these waters, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is near 19.1N 82.7W 980 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Ian is expected to intensify rapidly through the next 36 hours. Ian will move to near 22.7N 84W Tue morning as a major hurricane, then near 26.1N 83.8W Wed morning, near 27.2N 83.5W Thu morning and then inland across N Florida late Thu night to early Fri morning. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the waters W of 76W as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon through Fri night. Tropical storm force winds are currently forecast for the NE Florida coastal waters Thu through Fri. $$ DELGADO