000 AXNT20 KNHC 251728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Sep 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... IAN Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 15.2N 79.8W at 25/1800 UTC or 300 nm SSE of Grand Cayman moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and seas are peaking near 14 ft near in just N of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 21N between 75W and 85W. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin later today or tonight. Ian is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday and reach major hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it reaches western Cuba. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through midweek. Additional flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out later this week. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Regardless of Ian's exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of the week. Residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. GASTON... Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 39.4N 36.5W at 25/1500 UTC or 365 nm W of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and seas are peaking near 22 ft around the center. Gaston is expected to take a gradual turn toward the west-southwest by tomorrow. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Monday. Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are no tropical waves present based on the latest analysis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Western Sahara near 21N17W to a 1008 mb low near 23N20W to 10N25W to a 1009 mb low near 14N36W to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 09N51W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N and E of 33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the 1009 mb low from 12N to 16N between 34W and 40W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 09N to 13N between 44W and 61W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical Storm Ian, which is anticipated to impact the central eastern Gulf by the middle of the week. High pressure ridging is noted across the Gulf, with a 1014 mb high near 28N94W in the NW Gulf. There are some scattered thunderstorms noted in the SW Gulf near a trough extending along the southern Mexico coast. Light to gentle winds are noted across the entire basin with 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, conditions will begin to deteriorate across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tue as Ian moves northward from Cuba as a major hurricane. Residents along the Florida west coast and Florida Panhandle need to monitor this system closely and review your hurricane preparedness plan. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical Storm Ian moving across the basin. Outside the main impacts of T.S. Ian across the central Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are present across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist over the northwestern basin, while light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the southwestern basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ian is near 15.2N 79.8W 1001 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Ian is expected to turn NW later today, and intensify rapidly over the next 2-3 days. Ian will move to near 16.5N 81.1W this evening as a hurricane, then reach near 18.1N 82.5W Mon morning, then move over western Cuba near 22N84.4W Tue morning as a major hurricane, near 25.5N 84.8W Wed morning, then continue northward Thu and inland across N Florida Fri morning. Hazardous conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue, before winds and seas gradually subside as Ian moves N of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Gaston. A stationary front extends from 31N58W to 27N69W and a weakening front from 27N69W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N to 31N between 55W and 64W. Scattered thunderstorms are near the tail-end of the dying boundary around the northern Bahamas and off South Florida from 23N to 29N between 75W and 80W. Moderate northeasterly winds are noted north of the stationary front with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are around 4-6 ft in this area. High pressure extends across the central Atlantic with light to gentle winds. Seas are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas near 31N. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh winds are noted off the African coast, especially due to the influence of post-tropical cyclone Hermine. Showers are noted across the Canary Islands and off the coast of Morocco. Seas range from 5-9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell from Fiona still dominates the regional waters today and will decay below 8 ft to the S of 27N tonight. Tropical Storm Ian is near 15.2N 79.8W 1001 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Ian is expected to turn NW later today, and intensify rapidly over the next 2-3 days. Ian will move to near 16.5N 81.1W this evening as a hurricane, then reach near 18.1N 82.5W Mon morning, then move over western Cuba near 22N84.4W Tue morning as a major hurricane, reach near 25.5N84.8W Wed morning, then continue northward Thu and inland across N Florida Fri morning. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the waters W of 78W as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon through Fri morning. $$ AReinhart