000 AXNT20 KNHC 231734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Sep 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Hurricane Fiona is centered near 35.9N 64.2W at 23/1500 UTC or about 220 nm N of Bermuda moving NNE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Fiona remains very powerful land large hurricane, with a well-defined eye. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE, 120 nm SE and 60 nm NW quadrants of the eye. The SW quadrant is being hampered by dry air as numerous moderate convection only extends 30 nm from the eye there. Numerous moderate convection is from 30N to 34N between 60W-65W, and elsewhere from 34N to 39N between 56W-64W. Seas of 12 ft or higher are occurring within 300 nm in the NE quadrant, 390 nm in the S semicircle and 480 nm in the NW quadrant, with peak seas near 60 ft. Fiona is forecast to obtain a slower motion north- northeast or north motion is expected later today through Sun. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach Nova Scotia later today, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Sat, and then across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea on Sun. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Fiona is expected to be a powerful hurricane-force cyclone when it moves across Atlantic Canada. A hurricane warning is in effect for Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule, Prince Edwards Island, Newfoundland and from Parson's Pond to Francois. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in Canada late tonight or early Sat. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in Canada later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sun. Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 40.2N 29.1W at at 23/1500 UTC or about 100 N of Faial Island in the Central Azores moving ESE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite imagery shows that improving in satellite presentation as scattered to numerous moderate convection is developing and wrapping around the northern and western sides of its circulation. This convection extends within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 120 nm of the center in the southern semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen from 37N to 40N between 24W-30W. A slower south-southeastward and then southward motion is forecast today, followed by a southwestward motion tonight and early Sat, and a westward motion on Sun. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Azores, where the forecast track will move the cyclone near or over portions of the Azores today through early In addition to gusty winds, heavy rain and swells will impact portions of the Azores into the weekend. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 14.2N 70.1W at 23/1500 UTC or about 450 nm ESE of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Visible satellite imagery shows that the depression is mainly a sheared system, with the exposed and elongated center located roughly about 70 nm to the northeast of its deep convection. The convection consists of the numerous moderate to strong intensity from 11N to 16N between 71W-76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from 16N73W to 17N72W. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding along with possible mudslides of higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba into tonight. Heavy rain will likely spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into the weekend. A westward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Sat, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest on Sun and Mon. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Sat, pass south of Jamaica on Sat night and Sun, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sun night and early on Mon. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. More significant intensification is forecast on Sun and Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Ten is over the far eastern Atlantic near 17.9N 19.8W at 23/1500 UTC, or about 265 nm east- northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows bursts of numerous moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and also in trailing convergence band that is within 30 nm either side of a line from 11N22N to 14N19W and to 17N18W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range with the depression. The depression is forecast to decrease its current motion this weekend. The depression could become a tropical storm during the next day or so before weakening later this weekend. It is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across the Canary Islands through this weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather/gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the newly formed Tropical Depression Ten located over the far eastern Atlantic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes off the west coast of southern Mauritania near 18N16W to just east of newly formed Tropical Depression Ten that previously was a 1003 mb low near 18N20W. It resumes to its southwest near 16N21W and continues to 12N28W and to low pressure of 1009 mb near 11N35W and to 09N42W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N50W and to 08N59W. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 270 nm south of the trough and the 1009 mb between 32W-35W and within 180 nm north of the trough between 15W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 09N to 15N between 43W-59W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb surface high pressure is analyzed over the far NW Gulf near 29N93W. A weak surface trough extends from near 30N93W to 29N96W. Another surface trough extends from near 24N95W to the central Bay of Campeche. The nocturnal trough moved off the Yucatan Peninsula, and extends from 21N91W to inland Mexico at 19N92W. The first autumn cold front has pushed into the far NE Gulf. Latest ASCAT data depicts moderate northeast winds north of the front. Seas with these winds are 2-4 ft. No convection is along or near this front as the air mass over the northern Gulf is pretty dry. The gradient across the area supports gentle to moderate winds throughout the basin, with low seas of 1-3 ft. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the far western Gulf south of 26N and west of 95W. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine, located about 450 nm easts-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica is forecast to intensify into a hurricane as it moves NW toward the NW Caribbean into the weekend. Conditions will likely begin to deteriorate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Expect gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through the weekend as the weak cold front currently over the far NE Gulf slowly drifts southward over the next few days and dissipates by the end of the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Depression Nine. The eastern section of the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate convection south of 17N, mainly within about 90 nm of the Central American coast. Light to gentle winds prevail across the western and central Caribbean, west of 72W. Seas in this area are 1-2 ft. Fresh to near-gale force winds and seas of 5-10 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean in association with the tropical depression. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine near 14.2N 70.1W 1006 mb at 11 AM EDT is moving WNW at 12 kt, with maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. The tropical will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.5N 71.7W this evening, move to 14.7N 74.1W Sat morning, 15.1N 76.3W Sat evening, 16.1N 78.3W Sun morning, 17.8N 79.9W Sun evening, and strengthen to a hurricane near 19.8N 81.4W Mon morning. Nine will change little in intensity as it moves near 23.5N 82.8W early Tue. Deteriorating marine conditions can be expected near the track of Nine, including the central Caribbean today through early Sunday, and portions of the northwest Caribbean later on Sunday and Monday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact Curacao and Aruba today, then Jamaica and the Cayman Islands this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston, and on the newly formed Tropical Depression Ten over the far eastern Atlantic. Outside the special features, the first autumn cold front has entered the area from near 30N77W to inland northern Florida, and westward to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of 8-11 ft are behind the front. Isolated showers are near the front north of 28N. Otherwise, surface high pressure ridging remains cross most of the basin, north of 20N and east of 60W, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure centered just north of the area near 32N39W. Mostly moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the central Atlantic between 40W-60W. Over the eastern Atlantic, winds are mostly fresh elsewhere within 240 nm in the NW semicircle of Tropical Depression Ten. For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Fiona is N of the area and is near 35.9N 64.2W 936 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NE at 30 kt. Maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Fiona will move to 40.8N 61.4W this evening, become extratropical and move to 45.5N 60.6W by Sat morning. Swells generated by Fiona is currently reaching as far south as 21N and as far east as 56W. As Fiona continues to move farther away from the forecast waters, swell from this system will gradually move eastward and subside. By Mon morning, conditions should improve. Impacts from Tropical Depression Nine, currently over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, may affect areas offshore Florida early next week. Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Impacts from newly formed Tropical Depression Nine, currently in the southeastern Caribbean Sea may affect areas offshore Florida early next week. $$ Aguirre