000 AXNT20 KNHC 132354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Sep 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 25W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 25W and 37W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N to 23N between 20W and 25W. A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 46W, moving west at 5 kt. A 1011 mb low located near 15N45W is associated with this wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 12N to 20N between 40W and 52W. Some gradual development of this system is possible within the next 5 days, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves W to WNW over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday. Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NHC at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin+atlc&fdays=2 A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 73W south of 20N, moving west around 15 kt. There is no convection over the central Caribbean associated with this wave, however scattered showers are noted inland Hispaniola and northern Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Atlantic monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 19N16W to 10N25W to 09N34W. For information about convection, refer to the tropical waves section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extending from near Cedar Key, Florida to 27N90W stalls close to the Texas coastal waters near 27N94W. Upper-level divergent flow ahead of the front is supporting scattered showers and tstms E of 87W. A middle-level inverted trough continue to support a trough in the Bay of Campeche, which stretches NE towards the north-central Gulf just ahead of the front. Scattered moderate convection and tstms associated with this trough continue to affect the SW and west-central basin. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting light to gentle variable winds, except N of the front where gentle to moderate NE winds are observed. Seas are in the 1-3 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to shift slowly south then stall from near Tampa, Florida to Brownsville, Texas through late Wed then dissipate. Looking ahead to later in the week, high pressure will build over the southeast U.S. following the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a tropical wave in the central Caribbean is supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft E of 73W. Moderate to fresh winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Middle-level diffluent flow over the NW basin and an upper-level low centered near Turks and Caicos is supporting scattered showers over the NW basin while the tropical wave generates similar shower activity over portions of Hispaniola. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist over the Caribbean as a tropical wave moves across the central portions of the basin. Winds and seas will start to increase from east to west starting late Wed over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell moving through the Atlantic passages will gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will enter into the eastern Caribbean Fri, and reach the central Caribbean by Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends west-southwestward from 31N46W to 28N50W, then continues westward as a surface trough to 26N68W. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen up to 70 nm southeast of the front, and north of the trough. A broad upper-level low over the southeastern Bahamas is inducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over and northeast of the Bahamas. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent winds aloft to generate similar weather near and southeast of Trinidad and Tobago. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in northerly swell north of 25N between the northwest African coast and George/Florida coast, including the Canary Islands. Outside the influence of the central Atlantic tropical wave, gentle to moderate easterly trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found from 10N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, NNE to NE moderate to fresh trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist from 13N to 25N between the central African coast and 35W. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the northerly swell of 7 to 10 ft is across the waters east of the Bahamas. The swell is expected to subside into mid week. The northern end of a tropical wave will pass 55W south of 22N by early Fri, bringing fresh E winds and locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues westward toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida and stall by the end of the week into the weekend. $$ Ramos