000 AXNT20 KNHC 131750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Sep 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 21N southward across the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 21N between 20W and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is relocated to near 44W from 21N southward through a 1011 mb low near 15N44W, and moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 12N to 17N between 41W and 49W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are evident north of the low from 16N to 22N between 39W and 51W. There is a medium chance for this system to develop further over the next 2 to 5 days. Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NHC at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin+atlc&fdays=2 A Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 20N southward across Hispaniola into northwestern Venezuela and central Colombia, and moving west around 15 kt. Aided by an upper-level low near the southeastern Bahamas, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and nearby waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast just north of Nouakchott, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 14N23W to 09N33W. Other than the convection related to the tropical wave mentioned above, numerous moderate convection is found up to 100 nm along either side of the trough between 26W and 33W. There is no ITCZ based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea just north of Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches across the northern Gulf from the Florida Big Bend area to near Galveston, Texas. Isolated thunderstorms are present up to 40 nm along either side of the front. A surface trough curves southwestward from south of New Orleans to the western Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident over the central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Convergent surface winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds exist at the north-central Gulf, and southerly winds are over the southwestern Gulf. Seas at both areas range from 2 to 3 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface trough will linger over the southwestern Gulf into mid week, ahead of the cold front. The weak cold front will shift slowly south then stall from near Tampa, Florida to Brownsville, Texas by mid week then dissipate. Looking ahead after midweek, high pressure will build over the southeast U.S. following the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent easterly trades are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are present across the central and eastern basin. Light to gentle trades and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the western basin. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist through tonight over the Caribbean as a tropical wave moves across the central portions of the basin. Winds and seas will start to increase from east to west starting late Wed over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell are moving through the Atlantic passages today and will gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Fri, and reach the central Caribbean by Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends west-southwestward from 31N46W to 28N50W, then continues westward as a surface trough to 26N68W. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen up to 70 nm southeast of the front, and north of the trough. A broad upper-level low over the southeastern Bahamas is inducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over and northeast of the Bahamas. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent winds aloft to generate similar weather near and southeast of Trinidad and Tobago. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in northerly swell north of 25N between the northwest African coast and George/Florida coast, including the Canary Islands. Outside the influence of the central Atlantic tropical wave, gentle to moderate easterly trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found from 10N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, NNE to NE moderate to fresh trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist from 13N to 25N between the central African coast and 35W. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the northerly swell of 7 to 10 ft is across the waters east of the Bahamas. The swell is expected to subside into mid week. The northern end of a tropical wave will pass 55W south of 22N by early Fri, bringing fresh E winds and locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues westward toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida and stall by the end of the week into the weekend. $$ Chan