000 AXNT20 KNHC 130851 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Sep 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0720 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 22W, from 21N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 22W and 26W, and also from 16N to 18N between 16W and 24W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 46W, from 21N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 37W and 44W, and also from 14N to 18N between 44W and 50W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea along 69W/70W, and was clearly noted at the surface on overnight scatterometer data, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 73W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 18N16W to 07N30W to 07N44W. Other than the convection referenced in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from near Destin, Florida to the SW Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the SW Gulf south of 20N. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere east of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds are noted south of 23N between 90W and 94W. A cold front is analyzed from near Panama City, Florida to along the south-central Louisiana coast to near Galveston, Texas. Moderate winds are noted on either side of the front north of 28N. Mainly gentle winds are across the remainder of the basin. Seas are mainly 1-2 ft across the basin, locally higher in and near any thunderstorms. For the forecast, the surface trough will linger over the southwest Gulf into mid week, ahead of a cold front currently moving through the Gulf from near Panama City Beach, Florida to Galveston, Texas. The weak cold front will shift slowly south then stall from near Tampa, Florida to Brownsville, Texas by mid week then dissipate. Looking ahead to later in the week, high pressure will build over the southeast U.S. following the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the north-central and NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave is passing through the central Caribbean and is described in more detail above. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are across the waters east of the tropical wave, highest in the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar winds are noted offshore western and central Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean, except 2-4 ft offshore western and central Honduras. Seas are 2-4 ft across the remainder of the basin, except near and through Atlantic passages where they are up to 8 ft in N-NE swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist into today over the Caribbean as a tropical wave moves across the central portions of the basin. Winds and seas will start to increase from east to west starting late Wed over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages early today and will gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will into the eastern Caribbean Fri, and reach the central Caribbean by Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed in the central Atlantic from north of the area through 31N45W to 27N52W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within about 60 nm ahead of the front, as well as moderate to fresh SW winds. High pressure dominates the basin west-southwest of the front, centered near 30N59W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters west of 50W. Remnant northerly swell of 7-10 ft which filtered in behind the frontal system covers the waters north of 18N between 45W and 77W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 46W and associated convection is described above. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft accompany the tropical wave from 16N to 21N between 38W and 47W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands and associated convection is described above. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough to 23N between 19W and 30W, along with 5-7 ft seas. A set of NW swell in the wake of a cold front is offshore Morrocco and Western Sahara through the Canary Islands, with seas of 7-10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas are across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the northerly swell across the waters east of the Bahamas is expected to subside into mid week. Looking ahead, the northern end of a tropical wave will pass 55W south of 22N by early Fri, bringing fresh E winds and locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues westward toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Sat. A cold front may move into the NW waters and stall by the end of the week into the weekend. $$ Lewitsky