000 AXNT20 KNHC 130600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Sep 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/22W, from 21N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 13N to 16N, and within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 16N to 17N. The environmental conditions appear to be only marginally favorable. Any development of this wave should be slow to occur, while it moves westward or west-northwestward in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean through the end of the week. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/46W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 09N to 16N between 38W and 43W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 11N to 18N. The precipitation pattern has become a little more concentrated. Some additional development of this system is possible during the next several days, while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and as it approaches the Windward Islands by the end of the week. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 21N southward, passing through the eastern parts of the Dominican Republic, moving westward 20 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the eastern parts of Hispaniola. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 26N between 60W and 85W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 18N16W, to 08N30W 07N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 18W and 35W, and within 150 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 26W and 30W. Isolated moderate is from 10N to 13N between 55W and 62W. A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough is from 400 nm to 600 nm to the northwest of the 20W/22W tropical wave. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in the water vapor imagery. No significant deep convective precipitation accompanies the upper level trough. GULF OF MEXICO... The base of an upper level trough is near 19N99W in Mexico, just off the NW part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough continues from the Florida Big Bend, to the central Gulf of Mexico, to the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge covers the south central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: earlier numerous strong, that was in the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula during the last four hours, has weakened and dissipated. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong and other remaining rainshowers, are to the east and the southeast of the line that starts in SE Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the Deep South of Texas. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the deep part of the SW Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate winds are to the north of the cold front. Gentle wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the area. A surface trough extending from near Apalachee Bay, Florida to the SW Gulf will linger in the southwest Gulf into mid week, ahead of a cold front currently moving through the Gulf from near Panama City Beach, Florida to Corpus Cristi, Texas. The weak cold front will shift slowly south then stall from near Tampa, Florida to Brownsville, Texas by mid week then dissipate. Looking ahead to later in the week, high pressure will build over the southeast U.S. following the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 21N southward, passing through the eastern parts of the Dominican Republic, moving westward 20 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the eastern parts of Hispaniola. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 26N between 60W and 85W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The sea heights are 2 feet in the NW corner of the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are within 150 nm to the north of Colombia and Venezuela between 70W and 76W, and within 90 nm of the coast of Honduras from 85W westward. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from northern Colombia beyond southern Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 14N southward from 70W westward. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist into Tue in the Caribbean Sea, as a tropical wave moves across the eastern and central portions of the basin. The winds and the seas will start to increase from east to west starting late Wed in the central Caribbean Sea, as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages early on Tue and will gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will into the eastern Caribbean Fri, and reach the central Caribbean by Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough, and its associated cold front/surface trough, are the main weather features for the Atlantic Ocean, that cover the areas that are from 24N northward from 40W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is along the cold front, from 50W northeastward; and from 20N northward from 63W westward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 21N southward, passing through the eastern parts of the Dominican Republic, moving westward 20 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the eastern parts of Hispaniola. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 26N between 60W and 85W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface high pressure center is near 30N33W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the waters from 20N northward between 20W and the cold front. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 33N66W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the waters that are from the cold front/surface trough northward, and from the surface trough westward. Strong wind speeds or faster are from 31N northward between 35W and 50W, near the cold front. Moderate to fresh wind speeds are from 13N to 24N from 30W eastward. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are within 240 nm to 420 nm on either side of the line that extends from 31N23W 20N37W 19N48W 14N60W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet from the line 31N10W 24N26W 26N45W 18N57W 20N70W northward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Northerly swell of 8 to 12 ft is spreading across the waters east of the Bahamas. The swell is expected to subside into mid week. Looking ahead, the northern end of a tropical wave will pass 55W south of 22N by early Fri, bringing fresh E winds and locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues westward toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Sat. A cold front may move into the NW waters and stall by the end of the week into the weekend. $$ mt/jl