000 AXNT20 KNHC 121705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Sep 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced off the coast of Africa based on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagrams and wave guidance. The trough axis is along 19W, south of 21N and moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 17N and E of 22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the strong wave, showing a sharp trough and fresh NE winds from 15N to 23W and between 36W and 44W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite imagery from 07N to 18N and between 33W and 47W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W, south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 14N35W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 23W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico, extending from the coast of southern Louisiana near 30N92W to SE Texas near 27N97W. Farther east, a surface trough stretches from NW Florida near 30N87W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is observed to the east of the trough axis, primarily within 120 nm. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds are occurring west of the surface trough, except for locally fresh N winds in the W Bay of Campeche, offshore Veracruz. Seas are 2-4 ft west of the surface trough. Light to gentle southerly winds are occurring east of the surface trough, along with seas of 1-3 ft. For the forecast, a surface trough extending from near Panama City, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico will linger over the central Gulf into mid week, ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf later today. The weak cold front will shift slowly south then stall from near Tampa, Florida to Corpus Christi, Texas by mid week then dissipate. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two upper level lows located north of the Caribbean Sea are helping to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the north-central portion of the basin. A few other showers also dot the waters of the NW Caribbean, while a few storms are noted within 60 nm of the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. The eastern Caribbean is under a dry airmass that is suppressing the storm activity. A weak pressure regime north of the basin sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere. Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring in the south-central Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist into Tue over the Caribbean as a tropical wave moves across the eastern and central portions of the basin. Winds and seas will start to increase from east to west starting late Tue as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages early on Tue and will gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will approach the Leeward and Windward Islands by Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N46W and continues to 27N53W, where it transitions into a dissipating stationary front that meanders westward to 26N73W and then northwestward to 31N75W. A few showers are noted within 60 nm of the frontal boundaries, mainly to the south. Fresh southerly winds are evident on satellite-derived wind data ahead of the cold front, mainly N of 29N and W of 40W. Northerly swell associated with the remnants of former Hurricane Earl are generating seas of 8-10 ft N of 22N and between 40W and 74W. A surface trough in the central Atlantic extends from 24N54W to 17N54W and a few showers are noted near the trough axis. In the eastern Atlantic, the remnants of former Hurricane Danielle are located a couple hundred miles east of Portugal and are generating a large swell region that extends into the tropical Atlantic. Seas of 8-11 ft are found N of 27N and E of 31W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted N of 15N and E of 31W. Seas of 5-8 ft are present N of 15N and E of 31W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell of 8 to 12 ft is spreading across the waters east of the Bahamas. The swell is expected to subside into mid week. Looking ahead, the northern end of a tropical wave will pass 55W south of 22N by Thu, bringing fresh E winds and locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. $$ DELGADO