000 AXNT20 KNHC 110549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Sep 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 270 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 23N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 12N southward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 16N16W, to 10N30W 08N35W and 05N39W. The ITCZ continues from 05N39W, to 06N48W and 09N52W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 06N to 10N between Africa and 22W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 40W and 56W. A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough is along 25N17W 19N26W 15N34W. Some of the convective precipitation that is at the southwestern end of the upper level trough also is near the 35W/36W tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is digging its way through the western two- thirds of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 21N northward from 88W westward. A surface trough extends from 28N90W into the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are from 90W eastward. Numerous strong is within 210 nm to the north of NW Cuba. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 90W eastward in the Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure gradient that is between the central Gulf of Mexico surface trough, and the higher western Atlantic Ocean surface pressures, is leading to fresh to locally strong southerly winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 6 feet from 87W eastward. Light to gentle and variable winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 2 feet, elsewhere, from 87W westward. A surface trough extending from the north central to SW Gulf linger through the early part of the week before dissipating. Moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the trough and in deep convection will continue through the remainder of the weekend, locally higher in and near convection east of the trough. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail basin-wide Wed and Thu as high pressure north of the area becomes established. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough reaches from the central Bahamas upper level cyclonic circulation center, to SE Cuba, to 13N79W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N northward between Puerto Rico and 80W. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh NE winds are within 90 nm to 150 nm to the north of Venezuela and Colombia between 70W and 76W. Moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere within 200 nm to the north of Venezuela and Colombia between 67W and 77W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are within 120 nm to the north of the coast of Honduras from 84W westward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one- third of the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W at the coast of Colombia, beyond southern Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is in clusters, that are from 180 nm to 480 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. Numerous strong is between western Honduras and western Guatemala, about 150 nm to the north of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough. Mainly moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the basin through Sun night. The exception is for fresh to locally strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, and offshore eastern Honduras, where the winds will be fresh to strong at night. Trade winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, from Tue through Thu, as a tropical wave moves through the area, occasionally and locally strong. Northerly swell will propagate through the Atlantic Ocean passages early on Tue, and gradually will subside late Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough, its associated cold front, and a surface trough, are three of the main weather features for the Atlantic Ocean that is from 45W westward. The cold front is from 29N northward between 53W and 70W. The surface front is about 400 nm to the southeast of the cold front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward between 45W and 62W. The rest of the frontal boundary passes through 30N70W, northwestward, to the border of South Carolina/North Carolina. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the central Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Atlantic Ocean elsewhere from 62W westward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet and higher, to the north of line 31N28W 28N45W 30N70W. Fresh winds speeds or faster are from 31N northward within 360 nm to the east of the cold front. Moderate wind speeds or slower, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Weak high pressure ridging will prevail from along 23N northwest to just northeast of the the Bahamas through Sun. A cold front extending from 31N55W to 29N62W to 31N72W will extend from 27N55W to 25N66W Sun afternoon, and dissipate on Mon. Northeasterly swell will follow the front, and spread across the area waters Sun through Tue, decaying Wed. A trough or weak front may move into the waters offshore NE Florida midweek. $$ mt/jl