600 AXNT20 KNHC 101620 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Sep 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Earl is centered near 42.9N 53.0W at 10/1500 UTC or 225 nm S of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NNE at 25 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is confined to the NE quadrant of Earl and extends outward to 300 nm from the center. A decrease in forward speed is expected today, with Earl moving slowly northeastward to the southeast of Newfoundland tonight through Monday. Earl is forecast to become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low this afternoon. After that, weakening is expected, and Earl's winds are likely to fall below hurricane force tonight or early Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is in the Atlantic Ocean along 33W from 03N-21N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure area is along the tropical wave near 08N33W, where the wave meets the monsoon trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 270 nm W and 180 nm E of the wave axis from 05N to 14N. A tropical wave axis is in the Atlantic Ocean from 23N50W to 10N52W, moving W at 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 17N16W to 1012 mb low pressure near 08N33W to 07.5N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N40W to 11N59W. Outside of any convection referenced in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05.5N-12N between 10W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 06N-09N between 48W-52.5W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the west-central Florida Panhandle WSW to the NW Gulf near 28N94W. Another surface trough extends from just W of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico NNE to 22N93W to 25N91W. No significant weather is associated with those troughs. An upper- level low centered near SE Louisiana extends an upper-level trough southward to the Bay of Campeche. Upper-level divergence to the east of the upper-trough combined with high amounts of atmospheric precipitable water is inducing numerous moderate scattered strong convection covering the eastern Gulf of Mexico north of 23N and east of 89W. The strongest of this convection is occurring north of 25N and east of 87W extending to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Additional moderate to strong convection is noted within the western portion of the Yucatan Channel off Cancun. No precipitation is occurring in the western half of the Gulf, where skies are partly cloudy. The gradient between the aforementioned surface troughs over the central Gulf and higher pressure over the western Atlantic is inducing fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft over the eastern Gulf, mainly east of 87W. NOAA buoy 42036 at 28.5N 84.5W recorded 25 kt winds gusting to 31 kt along with 5 ft seas around 1430 UTC. Over the western half of the Gulf, light to gentle and variable winds prevail along with seas around 1 ft. For the forecast, a surface trough extending from the western Florida Panhandle to the NW Gulf will linger into early next week before finally dissipating midweek. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will prevail just east of the trough through tonight. Very active weather in showers and thunderstorms will also persist east of the trough. High pressure will dominate by midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level divergence and enhanced moisture are present over the far western Caribbean Sea. As a result, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring west of 86W in the NW Caribbean, including over the western portion of the Yucatan Channel. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are noted in the SW Caribbean, related to the east Pacific monsoon trough, from 08N-13N between 76W-80W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen in between the two aforementioned areas of convection, within 150 nm of the coast of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Over the northeast Caribbean, trade wind cumulus is producing isolated showers north of 14.5N between 64W-72W, including the Virgin Islands and south of the Dominican Republic. A ridge of high pressure is north of the Greater Antilles along 24N extending northwest to northeast of the Bahamas. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh E winds over the south-central Caribbean from 10.5-18N between 67W-80W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are over the NW Caribbean. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere, except for light to gentle in the far SW Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail today, fresh in the south-central Caribbean and offshore Honduras, where winds will increase to fresh to strong by this evening, and again Sun evening. A surge of fresh to strong easterly winds may accompany a passing tropical wave from the central to western Caribbean midweek. Northerly swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N62W to 30N67W to 31N71W. Moderate to fresh N winds and seas of 6-8 are N of the front. Fresh SW winds are within 300 nm east of the front, north of 29N between 53W-60W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm SE of the cold front, east of 60W and north of 29N. Additional moderate showers are noted from 27N-29N between 55W-58W. A 1019 mb high pressure is near 24N59W. A surface ridge extends from 26N54W to 24N59W to 26N70W to 28N74W. Gentle or weaker winds and 4-6 ft seas are near the ridge axis. A surface trough extends along 50W from 23N-28N. The surface trough is moving toward the NNW. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N-31N between 45W-51W. Farther east, a 1024 mb high pressure is analyzed near 30N36W. This high is located along a surface ridge axis that extends from 28N23W to 28N30W to 30N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 27N between 19W-28W ahead of a cold front located north of the area. The highest seas in the basin, 8 to 11 ft, are located from 29N-31N between 53W-60W, and from 23N-31N between 45W-53W. These seas are the result of swell from Hurricane Earl and the surface trough along 50W. An area of fresh trades with 7-8 ft seas is from 15N-25N between 23W-40W. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak high pressure ridge will prevail from along 24N northwest to just northeast of the the Bahamas through Sun. The cold front extending from 31N62W to 30N67W to 31N71W will extend from 29N55W to 28N65W to 30N72W Sun morning, then reach along 26N and dissipate by late Mon. Northeasterly swell will follow the front and spread across the area waters Sun through Tue, decaying Wed. $$ Hagen