883 AXNT20 KNHC 100908 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Sep 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Earl is centered near 41.2N 53.5W at 10/0900 UTC or 330 nm S of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at 30 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center of Earl, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 38N to 51N between 42W and 59W. Earl is moving rapidly toward the northeast, and a significant reduction in forward speed is expected today, with Earl moving slowly northeastward to the southeast of Newfoundland tonight through Mon. Earl is forecast to become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low this afternoon. Weakening is expected during the next few days, and Earl's winds are likely to fall below hurricane force tonight or early Sun. Strong winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland this afternoon through Sun, after Earl becomes a post-tropical low. Swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in Canada during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 32W, from 15N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure area is along the tropical wave near 08N32W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 30W and 34W, and from 05N to 07N between 32W and 36W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 48W/49W, from 24N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. A 1013 mb low pressure area is along the tropical wave near 24N48.5W, although it is not clear if there is indeed a closed low and/or if it is more mid-level. Convection has really developed overnight with numerous moderate and scattered strong convection noted within 300 nm in the north quadrant. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania just north of the border with Senegal near 17N16W to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N32W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 08N47W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 48W/49W near 09N49W to 10N54W. Outside of any convection referenced in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 46W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends extends from the western Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf with moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of it, as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms supported at the mid to upper levels. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft east of the trough. Gentle to locally moderate winds are west of the trough per earlier scatterometer and buoy data. Seas are 1-2 ft there. For the forecast, the surface trough will linger into early next week before finally dissipating midweek. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will prevail just east of the trough through tonight. Very active weather in showers and thunderstorms will also persist east of the trough. High pressure will dominate by midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge of high pressure is north of the Greater Antilles along 23N extending northwest to northeast of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds dominate the basin, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 4-5 ft in the south-central Caribbean, as well as offshore eastern Honduras, and mainly 1-3 ft elsewhere. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 13N to 18N between 78W and 85W, mainly due to a TUTT low. Deep and intense convection has also developed in the Gulf of Honduras early this morning to across nearby land areas. For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail today, locally fresh in the south-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras where winds will increase to fresh to strong by this evening, and again Sun evening. A surge of fresh to strong easterly winds may accompany a passing tropical wave from the central to western Caribbean midweek. Northerly swell will propagate through Atlantic passages early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb high is centered near 25N65W. A ridge extends west- northwest of the high to northeast of the Bahamas, and east- northeast of the high to near 31N40W and to a 1020 mb high near 29N30W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft seas in NE swell are found under the ridge. Hurricane Earl is very distant to the north while a trailing trough terminates near 31N57W. A cold front lags behind extending from near Bermuda to 31N70W then transitions to stationary as it extends to near the border of South Carolina and Georgia. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas associated with distant Earl of 8-13 ft are found north of 27N between 49W and 63W. Low pressure of 1013 mb is near 24N48.5W and is also described in the tropical waves section. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are found on the northeast side of this feature, while a larger, surrounding area of 8-11 ft seas in E to SE swell is found from 20N to 29N between 42W and 52W. A cold front is moving through the eastern Atlantic just north of 31N between the Azores and the Canary Islands with some associated convection north of 29N between 23W and 27W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found north of the monsoon trough to 26N and east of 42W, as well as from 20N to 30N between the coast of Africa and 30W, along with 6-8 ft seas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure ridge will prevail from along 23N northwest to just northeast of the the Bahamas through Sun. A cold front will sink south of 31N late today and extend from 31N53W to 28N65W to 30N72W Sun morning, then reach along 26N and dissipate by late Mon. Northeasterly swell will follow the front, and spread across the area waters Sun through Tue, decaying Wed. $$ Lewitsky