000 AXNT20 KNHC 092344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Sep 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Earl is centered well north of the area near 35.9N 58.7W at 09/2100 UTC or 370 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas have build significantly to 53 ft, and they extend as far as 330 nm from the center of Earl in the SE quadrant. Satellite imagery shows that eye has become partially obscured by clouds again. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection, in tight banding features, is noted within 90 nm of the center in the SE semicircle, and within 60 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is in the outer periphery of the NW semicircle from 37N to 40N between 53W-60W. Earl is accelerating toward the northeast. A faster northeastward motion is anticipated tonight. Earl is then forecast to slow down considerably Sat night through Mon. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible this evening. Earl is expected to complete its transition to a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low on Saturday and then steadily weaken through early Mon. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight and on Sat. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 29W from 01N to 16N, with low pressure of 1007 mb along its axis near 08N. It is moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 30W-34W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are to its northeast within 30 nm of a line from 17N21W to the Cabo Verde Islands to 13N26W and to 12N29W. No significant development is expected of this system through the middle of next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from near 27N47W to low pressure near 21N46W 1010 mb and to 11N46W. It is moving westward near 10 kt. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is displaced well to the northeast of the low from 22N to 28N between 38W-49W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm NW of the low. The earlier gale winds associated with this system have diminished to strong to near gale-force speeds. These winds are east to southeast in direction from 20N to 26N between 42W-46W as inferred from the most recent ASCAT data pass over this system. Seas with these winds are 10-14 ft. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of this system while it moves generally west- northwestward or northwestward for the next day or so. The disturbance is then forecast to merge with a non-tropical system over the weekend. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 11N23W through low pressure of 1007 mb that is near 08N29W and to 09N40W. Other than the convection associated with the tropical wave above, scattered moderate is well to the south of the trough within 60 nm of 09N19W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1006 mb low is analyzed near 27N90W, with a surface trough extending south-southwestward to 23N92W and to 19N93W and northeast to near 27N89W. Another trough extends from the Big Bend area of Florida southwestward to 29N86W. Both of these features are supported by a vigorous deep-layer trough over the north-central Gulf. Mid to upper-level diffluent flow east of the upper trough is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection east of a line from near Pensacola to 24N90W and to 22N88W. Winds over the southeastern Gulf are moderate to fresh with seas 2-4 ft. Elsewhere winds and seas are quiet outside of localized thunderstorms as a weak pressure pattern remains in place. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough extending from the NE Gulf to the SW Gulf will drift northwestward through the weekend and meander along the N Gulf coasts. The deep-layer upper trough across the central Gulf will support very active weather along and east of the surface trough through Sun. Fresh southerly return flow will develop across the eastern half of the basin tonight into Sat night. Winds and seas will diminish through early next week as a trough lingers across the SW Gulf and weak high pressure develops over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is allowing for moderate or lighter trade winds across the basin. Seas are relatively low, in the 2-4 ft range. Scattered moderate is occurring over the northwestern Caribbean west of 81W. This activity is being sustained by the deep layer trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and thunderstorms moving westward are over most of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the interior sections of the Greater Antilles. For the forecast, moderate southeast trade winds and slight seas will continue across most of the Caribbean tonight, and locally fresh in the NW Caribbean. Very active weather will continue across the far NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return to the southeast Caribbean and off Honduras tonight through Tue, becoming locally strong in the south-central Caribbean Sat night and again Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Earl. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N31W, with ridging extending westward to near 48W and southwestward to 24N58W and to the central Bahamas. Another ridge extends from this high east- northeastward to near 32N16W. The tail-end of a cold front reaches to near 32N27W. Scattered moderate convection moving east-southeastward is from 32N to 35N between 25W-31W. South of the ridge and north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, the trades are moderate to fresh with seas 8-10 ft. South of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, winds are light with seas 4-7 ft. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave that is along 46W/47W along with its attendant low pressure of 1010 mb near 21N46W, scattered moderate convection is seen north of 27N west of 75W. This activity is being focused along and near a stationary front that is along 31N and west of 73W. For the forecast west of 55W, other than the effects of departing Earl, weak high pressure will remain to the south and southwest of Earl through Sun. A cold front will move south of 31N late Sat and extend from near 31N55W to 28N65W to 30N72W Sun morning then reach along 26N and dissipate by late Mon. Northeasterly swell will follow the front, and spread across the area waters Sun through Tue. $$ Aguirre