000 AXNT20 KNHC 090932 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Earl north of the area near 32.7N 62.4W 963 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Peak seas are currently around 41 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 30N to 36N between 59W and 66W. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight as it continues to move away from the discussion area. Associated tropical storm force winds should be confined to north of 31N by this afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Central Tropical Atlantic: A gale-force 1008 mb low pressure system located about 1200 nautical miles east of the Leeward Islands near 19.5N44W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms that are displaced well to the northeast of the circulation center due to strong upper-level winds. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 21N to 26N between 37W and 43W. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft. Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain strong, the low still has some opportunity during the next day or so to become a short-lived tropical cyclone while moving toward the west- northwest at about 15 kt into the central subtropical Atlantic. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical weather outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 26W, from 16N southward, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 25W and 30W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 44W, from 21N southward, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western Africa from near the border of Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W to 12N26W to 1008 mb low pressure near 19.5N44W to 17N54W. Other than the convection associated with the tropical wave above, scattered moderate is noted from 13N to 16N between the coast of Africa and 19W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the NE Gulf to the SW Gulf. The majority of the convection that was occurring east of the trough has diminished overnight, but likely will redevelop through the day. Gentle to moderate winds are east of the trough, with light to gentle winds west of the trough, locally moderate offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are mainly 1-2 ft outside of any isolated convection. For the forecast, the surface trough extending from the NE Gulf to the SW Gulf will migrate NW toward the north-central Gulf today and induce a fresh southerly return flow across the eastern half of the basin tonight into Sat night. Mainly light to gentle winds will be west of the trough through that time. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through early next week as the trough weakens and shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the northeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the NW Caribbean. A few isolated thunderstorms are offshore Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are noted just offshore eastern Honduras. Moderate E to SE winds are in the SE Caribbean. Mainly light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas west of 70W are 1-3 ft. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft east of 70W, slightly higher through Atlantic passages due to northerly swell from Hurricane Earl well north of the basin. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean through today, locally fresh in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return to the southeast Caribbean and off Honduras tonight through Tue, locally strong in the south-central Caribbean Sat night and again Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Earl and on a gale-force 1008 mb low pressure system located about 1200 nautical miles east of the Leeward Islands. A weak ridge of high pressure is present south and southwest of Earl from near 24N55W to the SE Bahamas to near the Florida/Georgia border. Gentle to moderate winds are found under the ridge away from Earl. The ridge continues into the central and eastern Atlantic through 30N40W to north of the Canary Islands. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are between the ridge and monsoon trough and east of 30W, strongest through the Canary Islands channels. Seas are 6-9 ft in this area. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere outside of Earl and the gale-force area of low pressure. A tropical wave located several hundred nautical miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms as described above. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves westward or west- northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the middle of next week. For the forecast west of 55W, other than the effects of departing Earl, weak high pressure will prevail to the southwest of Earl today. A cold front will move south of 31N late Sat and extend from 31N55W to 28N65W to 30N73W early Sun before weakening. Northerly swell will follow the front, affecting the northeastern and north- central forecast zones Sun and Mon before subsiding Tue. $$ Lewitsky