000 AXNT20 KNHC 080558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Sep 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Danielle is centered near 45.6N 32.9W at 08/0300 UTC or 525 nm NNW of the Azores and moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Seas are peaking at 30 to 33 ft near the center. Numerous moderate convection is noted near and up to 100 nm north and east of the center. Interaction with an upper- level trough and cooler sea surface temperature will sustain the weakening trend, and Danielle should transition into an extratropical cyclone on Thu while turning slowly counterclockwise. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Hurricane Earl is centered near 27.2N 65.5W at 08/0300 UTC or 310 nm S of Bermuda and moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Seas are peaking at 30 to 32 ft near and just northeast of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is found up to 100 nm within the center. Earl is currently a Category 2 hurricane, but is forecast to strengthen into a Category 3 or even 4 Hurricane by Fri. The forecast track brings Earl to the east of Bermuda Thu night through Fri morning. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. A broad 1009 mb low pressure located about 700 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 18N37W continues to generate scattered moderate convection from 17N to 22N between 33W and 38W. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds with 10 to 12 ft seas are seen near and just north and east of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system over the next several days. There is a high chance for this system to become a tropical depression over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 17W from near Dakar, Senegal southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 16W and 23W, and also near the coast of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. Development is not anticipated within the next 48 hours, but there is a low chance of formation over the next 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 22N southward through the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section above, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are present south of the low from 10N to 13N between 33W and 37W. A weak tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 52W from 20N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. There is no significant convection near the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast south of Nouakchott across the Cabo Verde Islands and the low mentioned in the Special Features section to 13N46W. Aside from convection associated with the low and tropical waves, there is no significant convection near this feature. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters north of Panama and northern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends southwestward from central Florida to the central Gulf. Coupling with a broad mid-level low just east of New Orleans, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the north-central, northeastern and east-central Gulf. Another surface trough over east-central Mexico is producing similar conditions at the western Bay of Campeche. Other than gentle to moderate northeasterly winds at the eastern Bay of Campeche and east-central Gulf, light to gentle winds prevail for the rest of the Gulf. Seas are at 1 to 3 ft across the entire Gulf. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Thu night, producing gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas across the Gulf. Broad low pressure will form over the north-central Gulf early Fri and induce a moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow across the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the northeastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent southeasterly winds are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. Gentle to locally moderate SE to S winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present for the eastern basin. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being disrupted by Hurricane Earl, currently located well north of the area. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to the southeast Caribbean and off Honduras Fri night through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Earl and a broad low pressure west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the influence of Hurricane Earl and the broad low pressure west of the Cabo Verde Islands, a modest Atlantic ridge is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 10N between 46W and the Georgia-Florida coast/Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 46W. To the south, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are evident from 6N to 20N between the central African coast and 46W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Earl will move to 28.6N 65.0W Thu morning, 30.7N 63.7W Thu evening, then continue north of the area through late Sat as it becomes extratropical, and weakens by late Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to the northwest and west of Earl. Northerly swell associated with Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri into Sun. Looking ahead, a new low pressure system could form near Bermuda by Mon, prolonging NE swell across the waters south and southeast of Bermuda. $$ Chan