000 AXNT20 KNHC 072243 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Sep 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Danielle is centered near 44.9N 34.9W at 07/2100 UTC or 540 nm NW of the Azores moving NE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Danielle remains a large Category One hurricane over the far north Atlantic. Seas are peaking near 32 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles. With an upper level trough approaching from the W and Danielle entering a zone of much cooler sea temperatures, gradually weakening is expected. Danielle is also likely to transition into an extratropical cyclone Thu. Hurricane Danielle is expected to continue moving NE tonight, but slow down and begin a counter-clockwise loop Thu that will continue into Fri. Into the weekend, Danielle should commence a southeastward motion. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Hurricane Earl is centered near 26.5N 65.5W at 07/2100 UTC or 350 nm S of Bermuda moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Earl is currently a Category One hurricane, but is forecast to strengthen into a Major Hurricane by Fri. Peak seas are near 32 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm N and 60 nm S semicircles. Early is expected to gradually veer to the NE over the next couple of days and also begin to accelerate in forward motion. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will pass just N of Bermuda Thu into early Fri. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane watch are in effect for Bermuda. Strengthening is forecast for the next 48 to 60 hours, and Earl is forecast to be a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane when it is closest to Bermuda. By this weekend, Earl may begin to transition into an extratropical cyclone. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located near 17N36W or several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually becoming better defined. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity still remains disorganized, and currently extends from 16N to 21N between 32W and 37W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely form by Friday while it moves westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper- level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave currently located near the west African coast along 16W is forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic over the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter as the system moves west- northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Development is not anticipated within the next 48 hours, but there is a low chance of formation over the next 5 days. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 14N E of 23W. A weak tropical wave is near 52W from 10N to 20N, moving west at around 10 kt. There is no significant convection near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott at 19N16W, then continues through the Cabo Verde Islands to a 1009 mb low pressure located near 17N36W, previously mentioned in the Special Features section, to 14N45W. Aside from convection associated with the low and previously mentioned tropical wave, scattered moderate convection has developed from 07N to 11N between 23W and 28W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean, particularly S of 12N between 73W and 81W, including near the coasts of Panama and Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed across the Gulf waters, and extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the Bay of Campeche. Numerous moderate to isolateds strong convection is noted along and behind the trough, encompassing waters E of a line from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Tampico, Mexico. Winds in this zone of showers and thunderstorms are generally moderate and NE, except locally higher near the more intense convection. Elsewhere, weak high pressure is providing light to gentle winds. Seas through the basin are 1 to 2 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will dominate the Gulf waters through Thu night, producing gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Broad low pressure will move into the northwest Gulf Fri and induce a moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow across the eastern half of the basin Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the northeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection associated with the outermost rainbands of Hurricane Earl, centered midway between Puerto Rico and Bermuda, are impacting the Leeward and Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, aside from convection in the far SW basin depicted in the Monsoon Trough section above, generally dry conditions prevail. Mainly light to gentle winds are occurring across the basin, with the exception of gentle to moderate trades between Venezuela and 15N. Seas are 3-4 ft within this area of winds as well as in and near the Mona Passage, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere based on recent altimeter data. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being disrupted by Hurricane Earl. Earl will continue to move away from the NE Caribbean while gradually strengthening. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to the southeast Caribbean and off Honduras Fri night through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Earl as well as information on low pressure west of the Cabo Verde Islands that is likely to develop into a tropical depression. A surface trough extends from 31N78W to near Melbourne, Florida. No significant convection is occurring with this trough. Light to gentle winds dominate waters W of 70W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the vicinity and SW of the Bahamas. E of Earl, a ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, with a high pressure center of 1022 mb located SSE of the Azores near 32N24W. The pressure gradient between this system and the low pressure situated near 17N36W supports an area of fresh to strong winds within about 300 nm N of the low center where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. A band of fresh southwesterly flow is also noted within 280 nm SE quadrant of the low center. Similar wind speeds are near the coast of southern Western Sahara. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft N of 20N E of 35W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or less and seas average 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, winds will diminish across the NE forecast waters Fri night as Hurricane Earl moves N of the forecast area. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to the NW and W of Earl. Northerly swell associated with Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri into Sun. Looking ahead, a new low pressure system could form near Bermuda by Mon, prolonging NE swell across the NE and north-central waters. $$ KONARIK