000 AXNT20 KNHC 061020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Sep 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Danielle is centered near 42.1N 41.9W at 06/0900 UTC or 730 nm WNW of the Azores moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Seas are peaking at 34 ft near the center. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the southwest semicircle of the center. Danielle is expected to maintain a NE track through this evening, before turning toward ENE Wed. Due to cooler sea surface temperature, Danielle should gradually weaken over the next several days and might transition into an extratropical system Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 23.4N 65.4W at 06/0900 UTC or 300 nm N of St. Thomas moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. This is slightly weaker than earlier, due to strong SW shear. Seas are peaking at 21 ft near and just northeast of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted near and north of the center from 23N to 25N between 63W and 65W. Earl is expected to continue on a northward movement through Wed morning, then turn toward the NNE Wed night or Thu. Strengthening is forecast and Earl is likely to become a hurricane tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. In the eastern Atlantic, recent scatterometer passes framed the eastern and western edges of an elongated low pressure area along the monsoon trough southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The center of the 1011 mb low was estimated to be near 14N25W. This is associated with a tropical wave that move across the islands over the last couple of days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident from 10N to 16N between 25W and 32W. Environmental conditions are conducive for some development of this system. There is a medium chance a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days while moving westward to west- northwestward at 15 kt over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Upper- level winds are likely to become less conducive for development late this week. Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php/?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more detail. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave was relocated to 25W from 04N to 20N, and moving is west around 10 kt. This wave is embedded within a newly formed broad area of low pressure southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the third paragraph of the Special Features section above for more information. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 10N to 21N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection near this wave on the latest analysis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands to the 1011 mb low centered near 14N25W to 09N40W. The ITCZ continues from 09N40W to near Grenada. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave and low, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 12W and 17W, and from 09N to 11N between 55W and 58W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwest Caribbean, and is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Panama- Colombia border, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf. Weak ridging extends from the high pressure across the northern Gulf. This pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas across the Gulf. Divergent flow aloft is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf. Local drainage flow is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Veracruz in the southwest Gulf. For the forecast, the weak high pressure will persist across the northern Gulf through Thu night maintaining gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Winds will freshen tonight off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a local trough that develops each afternoon and evening. Broad low pressure will move into the northwest Gulf Fri and induce southerly return flow across the eastern half of the basin Fri night through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being disrupted by T.S. Earl, currently located north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands near 23.4N 65.4W at 5 AM EDT, supporting a few showers and thunderstorms across the Virgin and Leeward Islands today. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicates moderate to fresh NE winds across the northern entrances to the Windward Passage, mostly due local drainage effects. This is likely Buoy, ship, and scatterometer data show light to gentle winds elsewhere. Similarly, slight seas persist across the basin. No significant convection is noted across the basin, except off the Colombia/Panama border area. For the forecast, Earl will continue to move slowly north and away from Caribbean waters today. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean through the middle of the week. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to the basin Fri night through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical Storm Earl. Outside of the influence of T.S. Earl, roughly beyond 240 nm of the center, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the area west of 45W, with no significant showers or thunderstorms. Farther east, a broad area of moderate to fresh easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas following the tropical wave near 45W, and a related trough to its north farther into the subtropics. This activity is also to the north of the broad low southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands discussed in the Special Features section. Light to gentle trades and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Earl will move to 24.1N 65.7W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.0N 65.7W Wed morning, then continue to 26.2N 65.5W Wed afternoon, 27.8N 65.0W Thu morning, 29.6N 64.3W Thu afternoon, and 31.6N 62.7W Fri morning. Earl will change little in intensity as it continues to move north of the area through late Fri. Elsewhere weak high pressure will prevail to the NW and W of Earl. Looking ahead, northerly swell associated with Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri and Sat. Farther east, the broad low southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands will likely become more organized and move west of 35W between 15N and 20N by late Wed, accompanied by strong winds and rough seas within 90 nm on its north side. Looking ahead, the low and associated marine conditions are expected to move sharply to the northwest through the latter part of the week, and cross north of the area by late Sat before reaching 55W. $$ Christensen