000 AXNT20 KNHC 060555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Sep 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Danielle is centered near 41.6N 42.6W at 06/0300 UTC or 750 nm WNW of the Azores, and moving NE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Seas are peaking at 32 to 34 ft near the center. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Danielle is expected to maintain a NE track through Tue, before turning toward ENE on Wed. Due to cooler sea surface temperature, Danielle should gradually weaken over the next several days and might transition into an extratropical system near Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 22.9N 65.2W at 06/0300 UTC or 270 nm N of St. Thomas and moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are peaking at 17 to 19 ft near and just northeast of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted near and north of the center from 22N to 24N between 64W and 67W. Earl is expected to continue on a northward movement through Wed morning, then turn toward the NNE Wed night or Thu. Strengthening is forecast and Earl is likely to become a hurricane later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. A broad and elongated low pressure associated with a tropical wave has formed near and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Widespread scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 16N between 23W and 33W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for some development of this system. There is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical depression over the next 2 to 5 days. Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php/?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more detail. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 20N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. This wave is embedded within a newly formed broad area of low pressure southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the third paragraph of the Special Features section above for more information. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 21N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection near this wave on the latest analysis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 14N24W to 09N41W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is found up to 130 nm south and 50 nm north of the trough east of 33W. Numerous heavy showers are present south of the trough near the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast. An ITCZ continues from 09N41W across 09N50W to just east of Trinidad and Tobago at 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection exist up to 120 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Panama-Colombia border, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Convergent surface winds are producing isolated thunderstorms just southwest of Tampa, Florida, near the Yucatan Channel and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Southwesterly upper-level flow is streaming thick cirrus across the northwestern Gulf. A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high over the east-central Gulf to the western Bay of Campeche. This feature is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft for the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the northern Gulf through Thu night, sustaining gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas across the Gulf. Winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will become fresh the rest of tonight and Tue night due to a local trough that develops during afternoon and evening. Broad low pressure will move into the northwestern Gulf Fri and induce southerly return flow across the eastern half of the Gulf Fri night through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent southerly winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Earl well north of the Virgin Islands are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Virgin Islands and Saint Martin. Convergent trades are generating isolated thunderstorms at the south-central basin and just south of eastern Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh NE trades and 3 to 5 ft seas are present near and just south of the Windward Passage. Otherwise, light to gentle with locally moderate easterly trades and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for much of the basin. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being disrupted by T.S. Earl, currently located north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands near 22.9N 65.2W at 11 PM EDT. Earl will continue to move slowly north and away from Caribbean waters tonight and Tue while gradually strengthening. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean through midweek, except for occasionally moderate to fresh SE winds over the southeast Caribbean and over Atlantic waters off Trinidad and Guyana. Lines of showers and thunderstorms related to Earl will continue to impact the Leeward Islands and adjacent waters into Tue. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to the basin Fri night through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical Storm Earl. An upper-level low southwest of Bermuda near 30N69W is triggering isolated thunderstorms north of 27N between 66W and 74W. Enhanced by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, a surface trough near 27N42W is creating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N between 37W and 43W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Earl, the weak Atlantic ridge is providing light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 10N between 40W and the Georgia-Florida coast/Lesser Antilles. Farther east, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident near the Canary Islands north of 17N between the African coast and 40W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W. Tropical Storm Earl will strengthen to a hurricane near 23.6N 65.4W Tue morning, move to 24.7N 65.5W Tue evening, 25.8N 65.6W Wed morning, 27.3N 65.4W Wed evening, 29.0N 64.7W Thu morning, and 30.8N 63.5W Thu evening. Earl will change little in intensity as it continues to move north of the area through late Fri. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to the NW and W of Earl. Looking ahead, northerly swell associated with Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri and Sat. $$ Chan