351 AXNT20 KNHC 051002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Sep 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Earl is centered north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico near 20.9N 65.3W at 05/0900 UTC or 150 nm N of St. Thomas moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The low level center of Earl is partially exposed to the west the main convection, due to southwest shear. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active from 19N to 23N between 62W and 65W. Seas are 12 to 18 ft from 20N to 24N between 63W and 66W. Earl will move northward through mid week, and is expected to intensify into a hurricane on Wed. Heavy rain is possible in Puerto Rico and the Virgin and Leeward Islands today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Hurricane Danielle is centered near 39.6N 44.4W at 05/0900 UTC or 820 nm WNW of the Azores moving NNE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Seas are peaking at 33 ft near the center and 12 ft seas extend from the center up to 180 nm in the west semicircle, and 150 nm in the east semicircle. Danielle should continue to accelerate and move N-NE to NE through early Tue, then turn E-NE. Little change in strength is forecast through today. Danielle will slowly weaken through thereafter as it moves over cooler water. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 04N to 20N, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 17W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40N from 15N to 25N through a 1012 mb low near 20N40W, and moving west around 10 kt. Aided by divergent winds aloft, isolated thunderstorms are seen near the northern tip of the wave from 26N to 30N between 35W and 40W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast just south of Dakar, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 13N25W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 10N40W to near Trinidad. Scattered moderate from 09N to 11N between 52W and 55W. The Caribbean monsoon trough reaches from near Cartagena, Colombia to near Limon, Costa Rica. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the Florida current near 23N85W in the southeast Gulf. Showers are also active off the coast of Veracruz. Otherwise, weak ridging across the northern Gulf is maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. For the forecast, little change is expected. The weak high pressure will persist across the northern Gulf through Fri. Expect gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through Fri. Winds will freshen at night off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue night due to a local trough that develops each afternoon and evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on possible heavy rain over Puerto Rico, the Virgin and Leeward Islands due to Tropical Storm Earl. An upper low is centered over the northwest Caribbean, supporting a few showers and thunderstorms north of 18N to the coast of Cuba. Weak trade wind convergence north of the monsoon trough between Colombia and Nicaragua. Farther east, a few showers are also active from Trinidad to the mouth of the Orinoco River. The presence of Earl north of Puerto Rico has disrupted the normal ridging pattern, resulting in generally light to gentle breezes over most of the basin, except for moderate SE flow across the eastern Caribbean, with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, little change is expected through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the special features section for information on Tropical Storm Earl. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted along a surface trough reaching from 31N68W to 28N75W. Outside of the winds, seas, and thunderstorms around T.S. Earl, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region east of 45W. Farther east, fresh SE winds are likely within 90 nm east of the tropical wave along 40N, accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are observed off northwest Africa. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl will move to 21.7N 65.5W this afternoon, 22.9N 65.7W Tue morning, 24.0N 65.8W Tue afternoon, and 25.1N 65.9W Wed morning. Earl will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.2N 65.7W Wed afternoon then move to 27.3N 65.4W Thu morning. Earl will change little in intensity as it continues to move toward the southeast and east of Bermuda through Fri. Elsewhere weak high pressure will prevail to the NW and W of Earl. $$ Christensen