000 AXNT20 KNHC 031758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Sept 03 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Earl, at 03/1500 UTC, is near 19.0N 62.4W, or about 115 km/61 nm to the NE of the Northern Leeward Islands. Earl is moving WNW, or 285 degrees 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Tropical storm force winds are within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, and within 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 12 feet from 18N to 22N between 59W and 62W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 17N to 26N between 53W and 65W. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 75 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 760 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Danielle, at 03/1500 UTC, is near 38.1N 44.0W. Danielle is moving WNW or 300 degrees 02 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 21N southward, moving westward about from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 12N to 17N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 08N to 17N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 24N southward, moving westward 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 20.5N. A surface trough extends from the 1010 mb low pressure center, northwestward, to 27N38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 20W and 42W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 15N20W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is along the 31W/32W tropical wave, to 12N35W, and 09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W to 09N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area from 12N southward from 33W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N93W. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 6 feet, are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the remainder of the area. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A broad and weak surface trough angles northeastward, from NE Mexico, toward the north central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast, from the Florida Big Bend to the Deep South of Texas. Gentle to moderate SE winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible for the wind speeds to be faster, and the sea heights to be higher, near the convective precipitation. Weak high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week, maintaining gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh nightly in parts of the SW Gulf through Sat night, due to the diurnal trough developing each afternoon in the Yucatan peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation is about 200 nm to the WNW of Jamaica, near 20N81W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 12N in the Caribbean Sea to 26N in the Atlantic Ocean, in Florida, and in the SE Gulf of Mexico, between Hispaniola and the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are in the central and in the NW Caribbean Sea, including in the Windward Passage. The comparatively fastest winds are in the Gulf of Honduras, with the sea heights ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet. Expect light to gentle trade winds, and the sea heights ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet, in the remainder of the area. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W at the coast of Colombia beyond Costa, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 78W and Costa Rica. High pressure across the eastern seaboard of the U.S. will support moderate to fresh trades across the central and NW basin through today. Afterward, gentle to moderate winds will dominate through Wed. Tropical Storm Earl near 19.0N 62.4W 1003 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Earl will move WNW around 10 kt today then turn more NW tonight and Sun, and remain just north of the NE Caribbean Islands, reaching near 22.7N 66.6W Sun evening. Earl will then begin to move slowly N to NE and strengthen, reaching near 25.3N 65.9W Wed morning. Active weather associated with Earl is expected to impact the NE Caribbean through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 79W/80W from 24N northward, just to the east of Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N northward from 76W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 26N northward from 70W westward. A surface trough is along 65W/66W from 24N northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 27N between 53W and 70W. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are from 25N southward from 60W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 22N northward from 20W eastward. Moderate or weaker winds cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area from 70W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 20N northward from 70W westward. Tropical Storm Earl near 19.0N 62.4W 1003 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Earl will move WNW around 10 kt through tonight and remain just north of the Caribbean Islands, changing little in strength, and reach near 20.3N 65W Sun morning, then near 21.8N 66.3W Mon morning, near 24N 66.6W Tue morning, then 25.3N 65.9W Wed morning and exit the regional waters as a hurricane early Sat. $$ mt/ar