000 AXNT20 KNHC 020541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Sep 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0535 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 38.0N 44.0W at 02/0300 UTC or 805 nm W of the Azores moving E at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed in all quadrants, extending to 175 nm from the center in the eastern semicircle. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. The storm is forecast to meander during the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. East of the Leeward Islands: A broad area of low pressure of 1008 mb is located along a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 17N55W. Satellite imagery indicate that scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 11N to 22N and between 50W and 60W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to locally strong winds in the northern semicircle of the low. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium probability of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A low pressure of 1006 mb is along the wave near 19N. The disturbanCe is moving over cooler waters, resulting in only a few showers near the low pressure and wave. This system has a low probability of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a low chance over the next 5 days. A tropical wave extends across Yucatan and into the E Pacific, it has its axis along 89W, south of 21N. It is moving W at 10 kt. The wave is enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity across SE Mexico and W Central America, with some showers dotting the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Another tropical wave has its axis along 95W, but it is mostly of interest to the Eastern Pacific. Please read their Tropical Weather Discussion for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N17W to a 1006 mb low pres near 18.5N26W to 11N37W to a 1008 mb low pres near 17N55W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 27W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the western Florida panhandle to 25N91W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the NE Gulf. Similar convection is observed in the nearshore waters of the NW Gulf due to storm activity over SE Texas and SW Louisiana and also in the E Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE-E winds are prevalent S of 27N and W of 86W, along with seas of 2-4 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-2 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse nightly over portions of the SW Gulf through Sat night due to a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the SW Caribbean Sea due to abundant tropical moisture and the E Pacific monsoon trough that is draped from Costa Rica to NW Colombia. Similar convection is noted off southern Hispaniola as the afternoon and evening storms spill into the regional waters. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are affecting the Gulf of Honduras waters, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach fresh to locally strong speeds into Fri night. Elsewhere, light winds and slight seas will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above for more information on tropical disturbances in the Atlantic with potential for tropical cyclone development. A weak high pressure over the western tropical Atlantic maintains generally tranquil conditions across the area. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are noted S of 23N and W of 60W, along with seas of 2-4 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail N of 23N. A surface trough stretches from 31N59W to 25N62W and a few shallow showers are present near the trough axis. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough and E of 30W to the African coast. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Farther north, moderate to fresh NE winds are affecting the waters offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, and the water passages of the Canary Islands, along with seas of 3-6 ft. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 2-5 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have recently decreased in coverage. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands, reaching the far SE forecast waters W of 55W tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through early next week. $$ DELGADO