000 AXNT20 KNHC 012332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Sep 02 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 38.1N 44.5W at 01/2100 UTC or 830 nm W of the Azores moving E at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has decreased to 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite imagery showers increasing numerous moderate convection east of the center of Danielle from 36N to 39N between 41W-45W. Danielle is forecast to undergo strengthening during the next few days, and it is expected to become a hurricane within a day. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. East of the Leeward Islands: A 1008 mb area of low pressure is that is located along a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 16N54W depict a broad area of low pressure. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 15N to 18N between 53W-55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 17N59W. ASCAT data from this afternoon showed fresh to strong winds in the northern semi- circle of the low. While environmental conditions remain only marginally conductive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west- northwestward toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium probability of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W from 06N to 21N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Low pressure of 1005 mb is along the wave near 18N. Convection with this system has also diminished during the day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the low. This system has a low probability of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a low chance over the next 5 days. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 88W south of 21N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. The majority of associated convection has moved inland the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 17N to 19N west of 86W. The northern part of an eastern Pacific tropical wave extends northward into the SW Gulf of Mexico along 96 and south of 21N, moving westward near 10 kt. While most of the associated convection is occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the eastern Pacific, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N17W to low pressure of 1005 mb near 18N24W and continues southwestward to 11N33W, and northwestward from there to 13N46W, to 14N48W to low pressure of 1008 mb near 16N54W and to 15N57W. Outside of tropical wave activity, numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the trough between 48W-52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 32W-44W, and from 07N to 09N between 45W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the western Florida panhandle to 28N89W and to 26N91W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the trough axis, and also north of about 22N and E of about 93W. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are gentle and seas are slight. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse over portions of the SW Gulf Fri and Sat nights due to a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough axis extends across the SW Caribbean, generating scattered moderate convection from 09N to 12N between 75W-80W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed in the central and NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are 3-5 ft in these areas. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach fresh speeds through Fri night. Elsewhere, slight winds and seas will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above for more information on tropical disturbances in the Atlantic with potential for tropical cyclone development. The western Atlantic is dominated by weak 1017 mb high pressure centered near 28N71W. Anticyclonic winds are light to gentle around this feature. Seas are 3-5 ft across the region. A stationary frontal boundary is just north of the area roughly along 32W and west of about 70W. A weak 1015 mb low is along this boundary near 76W. Scattered to isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and near the boundary. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N61W to 28N60W and to near 25N62W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms area along and within 60 nm east of the trough from 26N to 28N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere near the trough. In the eastern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have recently diminished n coverage. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands, reaching the far SE forecast waters W of 55W tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through early next week. $$ Aguirre