000 AXNT20 KNHC 011602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 38.1N 44.7W at 01/1500 UTC or 830 nm W of the Azores moving E at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate convection is observed from 36N to 39N, between 43W and 46W. The system is forecast to meander for the next few days while intensifying to hurricane strength by Fri night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. East of the Leeward Islands: A 1008 mb area of low pressure is located along a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 16N53W. The wave is moving W at around 6 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 21N, between 49W to 58W. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong winds in the northern semi-circle of the low. While environmental conditions remain only marginally conductive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium probability of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W from 06N to 21N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 21N, between 23W and 30W. A 1005 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave near 18N24W. This feature has been decreased to a low probability of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a low chance over the next 5 days. A tropical wave over the extreme western portion of the Caribbean sea extends along 87W, from 06N to 21N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 22N, between 75W and 88W. A tropical wave over the SW Gulf of Mexico extends along 95W, south of 21N, moving W at 5 kt. While most of the associated convection is occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the eastern Pacific, scattered moderate convection is observed in the SW Gulf of Mexico from 18N to 21N, between 95W and 96W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 10N35W to 16N52W to 08N57W. Outside of tropical wave activity, scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N, between 27W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle to the central Gulf. Moderate showers and thunderstorms are noted near the trough axis. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are gentle and seas are slight. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse over portions of the SW Gulf Fri and Sat nights due to a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean, generating scattered moderate convection from 09N to 12N, between 75W and 80W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed in the central and NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are 3-5 ft in these areas. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach fresh speeds through Fri night. Elsewhere, slight winds and seas will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above for more information on tropical disturbances in the Atlantic with the potential for tropical cyclone development. The western Atlantic is dominated by a 1018 mb high pressure centered near 28N70W. Anticyclonic winds are light to gentle around this feature. Seas are 3-5 ft across the region. In the eastern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have changed little this morning. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands, reaching the far SE forecast waters W of 55W this evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through early next week. $$ Flynn