000 AXNT20 KNHC 010553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Tropical Atlantic: A 1008 mb area of low pressure is located several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15.5N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 13N to 19N and between 47W and 54W. Similar convection is also found from 06N to 10N and between 50W and 55W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong winds are occurring in the northern and eastern quadrant. Seas are 6-8 ft. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west- northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A broad 1006 mb area of low pressure located over and to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands near 16.5N22W. Scattered moderate convection is present to the west of the low pressure. While surface observations indicate pressures are low in this area, the associated shower activity is currently poorly organized. There is still a potential for the system to become a short-lived tropical depression within the next day or so before environmental conditions become unfavorable for further development. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and also over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for additional information. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A 1017 mb area of low pressure is located about 800 nautical miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores, near 38N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the eastern semicircle, becoming better organized over the past several hours. If current trends continue, a tropical or subtropical depression could form later today while the system drifts generally eastward. This feature has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NW Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 86W, south of 21N, drifting W, very slowly at 5 kt or less. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 13N to 18N and between 80W and 85W. The wave is also helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms over Central America. A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 94W, south of 21N, across southern Mexico and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, drifting W, very slowly around 5 kt. Nearby convection is confined to land and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to a 1006 mb low pres near 16.5N22WW to 11N35W to a 1008 mb low pres near 15.5N51W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 23W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure regime continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough continues to stretch from the Florida panhandle near Apalachee Bay to the central Gulf near 25N89W. A few showers are noted near the trough axis with more robust convection occurring over northern and central Florida, spilling into the NE Gulf nearshore waters. Similarly, storms that developed over eastern Yucatan are progressing across the eastern Bay of Campeche on a weakening trend. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds prevail across the basin, except for light to gentle anticyclonic winds in the eastern Gulf and N of 28N. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse over the SW Gulf Fri and Sat nights due to a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the early next week maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean Sea, off NW Colombia. The rest of the Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are occurring in the NW and south-central Caribbean as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate trades are prevalent over the remainder of the basin. Seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in the NW and central Caribbean, while seas of 2-4 ft are found in the eastern and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach moderate to fresh speeds Thu through Fri night. Elsewhere, slight winds and seas will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on areas of low pressure near 16.5N22W and 15.5N51W with the potential to develop into tropical cyclones. A weak 1018 mb high pressure system remains positioned between the Bahamas and Bermuda. This patterns sustains light to gentle anticyclonic winds across a good portion of the western tropical Atlantic, except for moderate to locally fresh easterly trades in the offshore waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A weak surface trough extends from 31N58W to 26N60W and a few showers are noted near the trough axis, with most of the convection N of 30N. The rest of the western tropical Atlantic enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough and E of 30W to the African coast. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Farther north, fresh to strong NE winds are affecting the waters offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, and the water passages of the Canary Islands, along with seas of 3-6 ft. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 2-5 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have gradually increased in organization over the past day or so. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, only slight additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, reaching the far SE forecast waters west of 55W on Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through early next week. $$ DELGADO